基于灰色系统理论的企业事故损失综合评价刘莉君,刘友金,施式亮,曹休宁(湖南科技大学商学院,湖南省产业经济研究基地,湖南湘潭 411201)K1:企业事故损失的综合评价是分析企业安全效益和指导安全生产决策的重要基础。文章在扩展以往企业事故损失评价研究的基础上,建立了一个新的企业事故损失综合评价框架。通过科学选取人员伤亡损失和经济损失评价指标,首先基于历史数据对企业事故损失进行初步评价,然后在此基础上结合预测值对企业事故损失进行再评价,最后以评价结果为依据,帮助企业科学制定安全管理措施并指导企业安全生产,达到事故预防与控制并最大限度地减少事故损失的目的。1oM:千人伤亡综合率;百万元产值经济损失率;灰色预测模型;综合评价ms|:F272.5DSM:AcI|:1002-9753(2009)06-0157-06SyntheticEvaluationofEnterpriseAccidentLossBasedonGreySystemTheoryLIULi-jun, LIUYou-jin, SHIShi-liang, CAOXiu-ning(SchoolofBusiness, HunanUniversityofScienceandTechnology,HunanResearchBaseofIndustrialEconomics, Xiangtan411201, China)Abstract:Theaccidentlosssyntheticevaluationisanimportantbasisforanalyzingthesafetybenefitsofenterpriseanddirectingdecision-makingofsafetyproduction.Basedonpreviousstudiesofevaluationofenterpriseaccidentloss, theauthorestablishedanewsyntheticevaluationframeofenterpriseaccidentloss.Throughselectingscientificevaluationin-dexesofcasualtyandeconomicloss, preliminaryevaluationofenterpriseaccidentlosswasobtainedfromhistoricaldatafirstly.Secondlyreevaluationofenterpriseaccidentlosswasobtainedbypreliminaryevaluationcombinedwithpredictionvalue.Finalyenterprisesafetymanagementmeasuresweremadescientificallyonthebasisoftheresultsofevaluation,thusdirectingenterprisesafetyproductionandattainingtheexpectedpurposeofaccidentpreventionandcontrolandfur-thestreducingaccidentloss.Keywords:syntheticcasualtyratioperthousandpeople;economiclossratiopermillionproductionvalue;greyforecas-tingmodel;syntheticevaluation-,S3GEs-,10M,(M?3Y#70,12,70。7O?rSEM1,SM+vY#,#,(1977-),o,23,2S/v=,2vpV3,1Z_:、HW。Y#8NsNS=T1-8,9iBK。BNH,VZIn。,VN。7Y#T8C,6B1VCT56,yN,VBZNAs,3|V6Z8N。=Y#NH,4S。Y#、。S?Z4Q。vNssY#y#Y#d9,t%1,9jY#N6B1Z,Y#。7T。yN,3IB5,?$Z,YVN,N;?8N,V78N,7OBCLil5。yIn,3YVS|6NS,NN,iN$N,KNTG,。B、NST1VCT:B,=6。yN,18N,?VZIn,7VZ。HSN,n5AQY#NS。(一)人员伤亡损失评价指标Y,Y#H$q、$q$qSY。A,BSYf,q9M,?fM。*V98;?$q、$q$qep。N,3lBNS$8q。BS|QsE$8qYF(,!9:n5GS(V1)/,9+_,yY9-10。V1S#clScl1VUyUiUj1,13VUyUiUj1,Ui1Uj15VUyUiUj1,Ui1UjA17VUyUiUj1,Ui1Uj19VUyUiUj1,Ui1Uj12, 4, 6, 8sYVUM#1-3, 3-5, 5-7, 7-9VUyUiUj1Uij,5yUjUi1Uji/1o$qU1、$qU2$qU3$8qY,Uij|,Y,7YNT。B7,YV1YyM1i158中国软科学 2009年第 6期Scl,ZEEusE。3E)sSGipEin$,$q、$q$q$8qY:$qU21$qU1A1,U21 =5;$qU31$qU1S$6q、6q。$6q|Y#6B,Vvl,QY#q|Y#6vl,QY#qYY#6,89T/6:RV=L/PET,RV:6q;L:,;PE:8NOy-,vNssY#y#Y#d9,t%1,jY#N6B1Z,reY#iKvKhY#。yN,3$Z,YVN