Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,1,International Trends in Real Estate 房地产业的国际趋势 Milton Kotler, Kotler Marketing Group 米尔顿科特勒，科特勒咨询集团 Washington, D.C. Shenzhen Beijing 华盛顿 深圳 北京 www. kotlermarketing.com.cn mkotlerkotlermarketing.com,Beijin Real Estate Forum August 2005,中国地交会论坛 2005年7月30日,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,2,Situation in World Real Estate 世界房地产业现状,The global real estate market is booming 全球地产市场正在飞速发展 There are different trends and issues in residential, office and commercial real estate 住宅楼，写字楼以及商用房产有着不同的发展趋势 There are differences in the developed markets and in emerging markets 发达国家的成熟市场与发展中国家的新兴市场是不同的 What does this mean for China? 这对中国意味着什么？,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,3,Developed Markets Commercial 成熟市场 商业地产,Too much capital is seeking too few good assets. 资本过剩，出色的投资项目十分贫乏。 U.S. retail real estate market is very hot in key locations, but only for institutional investors 美国零售地产市场在某些核心地域十分火热，但仅限于机构投资者 Assets are overvalued, returning only 7% CAP rate instead of historic 10% 资产估值过高，资本回报率已从10%降至7%。 But 7% is a better return than alternative investments in bonds and equities. 但7%的回报率仍较投资债券或股票更为优厚。 Institutional investors can bank on long term lease price increase to eventually reach a 9% return. 机构投资者期望通过长期租贷来提高其投资回报率达到9% 。 This is adequate for U.S. and European institutional investors, but inadequate for entrepreneur developers, who have a higher cost of capital . 这样的回报率对于机构投资者来说是丰厚的，但对于企业开发商来说就较为逊色，因为他们的资本成本相对较高。,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,4,New shopping centers in Class A locations are being built by institutional funds because of low interest rates, high retail remand by chains and high lease prices. 由于低利率，连锁店高额租价所带来的高还押，吸引许多机构投资者都在A级地段大手笔的修建新的购物中心。 Entrepreneur developers are out of the Class A market. They require far more than 7% because of higher cost of capital. 企业发展商离开了A级市场，由于高额资本成本，他们要求多于7%的回报率。 Independent retailers cannot afford lease costs 独立的零售商无法承担高额租金。 Retail rentals have jumped from $30-$40 a square foot to $80-$100 a square foot in high-end locations. 屹立于高端地段的零售商场租价已由每平米30 40 美元飙升至80 90美元 Major chains replacing independent retailers. 大型的连锁店已取代了独立零售商。 Vacancies are low because of strong retail market for chains 由于强势连锁市场的拉动，当前商业地产的空置率并不大。 Entrepreneur commercial developers are looking at emerging markets. 商用地产发展商正在全球积极寻找新兴市场。,Developed Markets Commercial 成熟市场 商业地产,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,5,Developed MarketsResidential 成熟市场 住宅,The residential index HGX has gone up 250% in the past two years 住宅市场指数HGX在过去两年中上扬了250%。 Some investors are shorting the index, in anticipation of decline 部分投资者由于预期市场衰退，正在做空住宅投资 The sharp rise is similar to the NASDQ bubble of 1999-2000 住宅市场指标的激增状况与1999 2000年的纳斯达克市场的泡沫十分相似。,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,6,Condos 分户出售公寓大厦 Overbuilt in hot markets like Miami, Las Vegas and many other places 在迈阿密，拉斯维加斯等火热市场过度建造。 $800-$1,000 a square foot ($1-2 million an apartment) 每平方尺800 1000美元（一两百万美元一套） Overbuilt: growth by speculation, not residency 过度建造：增长驱动力源自投机，而不是居住需求 It will collapse, but will the collapse spread to other not-so-hot regions or other real estate sectors? 过热市场将会崩盘，但其是否会波及至非过热市场或其他类型地产市场呢？,Developed MarketsResidential 成熟市场 住宅楼,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,7,Luxury homes 豪华住宅 Vulnerable to ARMs (Adjusted Rate Mortgages) 易受储利率指数房贷的影响。 Short term interest rate are going up and these homes are more difficult to finance 短期内的利率正在上扬，这类房产的筹资显得较为困难。 ARMs getting close to the 30 year interest rate 储利率指数房贷接近30年国债利率 No field for flipping, only good for rich permanent residency ，仅仅对于富裕的永久居民是不错的。 The supply exceeds the permanent residency demand 供应量超过了永久居民的需求。,Developed MarketsResidential 成熟市场 住宅楼,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,8,Middle Class homes 中级住宅 The average middle class home is now in the range of $400,000 - $500,000.中级住宅的均价当前在40万 50万美元之间波动。 The U.S. median income is $45,000 全美人口年收入中间值是4万5千美元。 This is mostly a ARMs market experiencing a rising one year interest rate. 中级住宅市场遭受储利率指数房贷影响最大，其遭受了一年利率的上扬。 The middle class first time buyer cannot afford a middle class home. 中级住宅的第一次买家没有足够的承担能力。 This sector is very vulnerable 这类地产十分脆弱。,Developed MarketsResidential 成熟市场 住宅楼,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,9,Developed Markets-Office 成熟市场 写字楼,Office buildings, shopping centers and multi-family housing is controlled by REITS. 办公楼，购物中心以及多组家户型楼被不动产信托投资公司所控制。 This is strong money and the price of REITS has doubled. 这是一笔强而有力的资金，同时不动产信托（ REITS）的价格已经翻倍。 Too much capital chasing too few opportunities 资本过剩，与其对应的则是好的写字楼项目过少。 Leads to decline in yields and vulnerability of investment 导致了收益率下降，投资脆弱。 REITS do well as long as interest rates remainsrisky when interest rates go up. 不动产信托基金的强劲势头必须建立在稳定的利率基础上，一旦利率走高，其风险必然加大。,Kotler Marketing Group 科特勒咨询集团 www.kotlermarketing.com.cn,10,D