江南大学博士学位论文农户可持续农业生产行为理论与实证研究姓名：刘梅申请学位级别：博士专业：食品贸易与文化指导教师：王咏红;张灏;高瑛2011-07 摘 要本文的主要创新就在于以农户行为作为研究的切入点，研究视角新颖并创造性地构建了农户可持续农业生产行为的分析框架。建立了农户农业生态环境降级问题认知模型、农户可持续农业生产认知模型、农户可持续农业生产意愿模型、农户可持续农业生产实践模型四个计量模型，并利用山东省农户的调研数据，对农户的可持续农业生产现状及影响农户可持续农业生产行为的深层次因素进行分析，揭示了农户的可持续农业生产行为的动态过程。引入博弈论分析农户可持续农业生产的博弈抉择。通过农户与政府、农户与农户之间的博弈分析，探讨了建立可持续生产的生态环境友好农产品消费市场的可行性。关键词：农业可持续,农户,行为II AbstractAbstractSustainable development is the common target of human beings. Taking the road ofsustainable agricultural development to ensure food security, food safety and agro-ecologicalsecurity is the fundamental strategy of Chinas present and future agricultural development.In China, farmer is the main body of sustainable agricultural production. In this paper, thefarmers sustainable agricultural production behavior was analyzed in depth for the purpose ofproviding theoretical and practical basis for the policy making to optimize farmersagricultural production behavior and promote the sustainable development of agriculture inChina. For this research objective, based on a review of the previous literatures and relevanttheories, firstly, the current situation of the agro-ecological environmental problems resultingfrom the agricultural production were stated and the relationship between agriculturaldevelopment and agro-ecological environmental pollution from agricultural production wereempirically analyzed; secondly, the analysis of the economic reasons for agro-ecologicalenvironmental problems were made; thirdly, farmers sustainable agricultural productionbehavior was analyzed, which constitutes the core of this research. In this part, at first, gametheory was used to analyze farmers choice of sustainable agricultural production; then, alongthe farmers dynamic agricultural production behavior process of perceptionintentionpractice, a study framework for farmers sustainable agricultural production behavior wasconstructed, under which four econometric models-farmers awareness of environmentaldegradation, farmers perception of the importance of sustainable agricultural production,farmers willingness of sustainable agricultural production and farmers practice of sustainableagricultural production, were established to empirically analyze the current situation offarmers sustainable agricultural production and the factors influencing the farmerssustainable agricultural production behavior based on the survey data of Shandong Province,China. Lastly, policy recommendations were provided according to these study results.The results showed that: (1) China faces serious agro-ecological environmentaldegradation problems. The relationship between agricultural development and agro-ecologicalenvironmental pollution was shown by an inverted U-curve. Chinas current agriculturalgrowth was still at the left of inverted U-curve far from the turning point. The process ofagricultural development would be accompanied by more agricultural environmental pollutionwithout active measures. (2) Through game analysis for farmers choice of sustainableagricultural production, technology innovation and establishment of consumer market for theeco-friendly agricultural products under sustainable production were needed to promotefarmers transition to sustainable agricultural production. The feasibility of establishingconsumer market for eco-friendly agricultural products and the main factors influencingconsumers purchase willingness of eco-friendly agricultural products were studied based onthe survey data of the consumers in Rizhao city, Shandong province, China by logit model.The results showed that the establishment of consumer market for eco-friendly agriculturalproducts is feasible; in addition to price factors, education and awareness of ago-ecologicalenvironmental problems also affected consumers purchase willingness of eco-friendlyIII Abstractagricultural products. (3) Through the analysis of farmers sustainable agricultural productionbehavior under the study framework of farmers sustainable agricultural production behaviorwith four econometric models along the farmers dynamic agricultural production behaviorprocess of perceptionintentionpractice, it was concluded that farmers had not higherawareness of agro-ecological environmental degradation problems, and farmers had higherperception of the importance of sustainable agricultural production and higher willingness ofsustainable agricultural production, but these did not lead to farmers higher sustainableagricultural production practices; educatio