Global Economics Analyst Third Quarter 2010 Economies at a Glance with main forecasts Refer to ERWIN on Goldman 360 for additional forecasts and historical data Global Economics Analyst Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3rd Quarter 2010 Volume 8, Issue 3 Contents World Outlook 1 Main Economic Forecasts 2 Interest Rate Forecasts 4 G3 and Europe . 4 America and Asia 5 Exchange Rate Forecasts 6 Dollar Crosses . 6 Euro Crosses 7 Monetary and Fiscal Conditions 8 Broad Money Growth 8 Budget Balances . 9 Government Debt Ratio . 10 Demand and Output 11 Real GDP . 11 Real GDPSince 2002 and 10 Year Trend 12 Nominal GDPLevel 13 Nominal GDP . 14 Consumer Expenditure 15 Fixed Investment . 16 Domestic Demand . 17 Exports of Goods and Services . 18 Imports of Goods and Services . 19 Current Account 20 Industrial Production . 21 Unemployment Rate 22 Prices 23 CPI Inflation . 23 GDP Deflators 24 Commodity Prices 25 Country ReportsG3 26 United States 26 Japan . 27 Euroland 28 Country ReportsEurope 29 Czech Republic 29 Denmark 29 France 30 Germany 30 Hungary . 31 Italy 31 Kazakhstan 32 Netherlands . 32 Country ReportsEurope cont Norway . 33 Poland . 33 Russia . 34 Spain . 34 Sweden . 35 Switzerland . 35 Turkey . 36 Ukraine . 36 United Kingdom 37 Country ReportsAfrica Canada, M2; Chile, M3 eop; China, M2; Ecuador, M2; Euroland, M3; Hong Kong, M2; India, M3; Indonesia, M2; Japan, M2; Malaysia, M3; Philippines, M2; Singapore, M3; South Korea, M3; Switzerland, M3; Taiwan, M2; Thailand, M2; UK, M4; USA, M2; Venezuela, M2 eop. Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. Australia: Currency + all ADI deposits of the private non-ADI sector + non-deposit borrowings from the private sector by AFIs - holdings of currency and bank deposits by RFCs and cash management trusts. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years. 2008200920102011Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Australia17.610.212.713.59.25.65.7 Brazil13.86.422.017.04.84.86.412.616.019.022.025.027.024.021.017.0 Canada9.218.50.33.614.514.514.410.97.55.23.22.83.03.54.04.0 Chile19.13.014.013.013.79.13.73.010.012.014.014.015.016.014.013.0 China17.827.618.017.025.428.429.327.622.519.018.518.017.017.017.017.0 Denmark7.710.28.28.26.26.89.310.26.57.77.78.28.28.28.28.2 Ecuador22.00.26.36.6 Euroland8.0-0.11.45.65.74.12.4-0.1-0.2-0.40.11.42.63.94.95.6 Hong Kong-1.35.05.05.03.313.514.45.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0 India18.819.520.221.018.820.119.019.319.519.519.820.020.220.420.820.8 Indonesia14.913.016.018.020.216.113.513.014.015.015.016.016.017.017.018.0 Japan2.12.72.42.22.12.62.83.32.82.22.32.32.42.32.12.0 Malaysia11.99.28.09.07.35.76.99.28.78.08.08.09.09.09.09.0 Mexico13.012.710.018.012.912.812.812.712.011.310.710.0 Peru25.55.513.413.87.1-7.00.95.55.613.59.710.85.214.915.513.8 Philippines16.57.613.015.09.012.010.97.612.012.013.013.014.014.015.015.0 Singapore11.610.67.07.010.912.110.410.68.26.07.07.07.07.07.07.0 South Africa9.19.48.710.58.48.08.59.49.49.910.48.78.28.89.910.5 South Korea9.19.49.110.58.48.08.59.49.49.910.49.18.28.89.910.5 Sweden7.7-2.72.81.4-0.8-2.7 Switzerland2.06.03.85.97.76.45.7 Taiwan7.05.05.05.06.68.27.65.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0 Thailand9.26.77.07.09.09.17.66.66.07.07.07.07.07.07.07.0 UK12.111.510.69.612.612.611.911.511.211.110.910.610.310.19.89.6 USA7.17.81.6-2.99.68.77.85.12.01.51.61.21.30.0-4.3-8.7 Venezuela26.932.040.037.030.930.331.032.035.038.040.040.041.042.037.037.0 Advanced Economies7.15.32.42.07.56.96.04.02.72.12.32.42.72.61.3-0.1 World9.29.37.07.010.410.49.98.77.56.86.97.0 200920102011Broad Money, % change, yoy -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 200220032004200520062007200820092010 % chg Broad Money Growth Japan USA World -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %chg Broad Money Growth Euroland UK Global Economics Analyst Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3rd Quarter 2010 Volume 8, Issue 3 9 Budget Balances Note: India reports data on a fiscal year basis (1st April - 31st March). For example 2007 will contain data between 1st April 2007 and 31st March 2008. The aggregates are calculated by using size of Nominal GDP in US dollars using ppp exchange rate, and GS estimates for forecast years. Gen Govt Bal, US$bn 2008200920102011 Australia0.2-32.6-42.1-23.1 Brazil-31.1-52.5-64.1-60.8 Canada28.15.0-30.0-15.0 Chile11.1-7.4-8.1-6.4 China-18.2-108.3-109.3-112.2 Colombia-0.2-6.3-9.6-8.3 Czech Republic-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6 Denmark11.6-6.2-15.0-12.2 Ecuador0.3-2.0-1.9-1.9 Euroland-263.0-809.7-938.6-748.6 France-99.0-233.3-256.2-200.5 Germany1.5-107.7-205.6-155.9 Hong Kong0.2-5.0-6.61.3 Hungary-6.1-5.2-6.5-5.5 India-123.6-131.6-127.5-135.9 Indonesia-8.3-17.4-21.2-17.2 Italy-63.7-114.4-121.6-106.7 Japan-167.3-554.6-504.2-467.5 Kazakhstan-2.8-3.8-5.2-