摘要近年来，我国房地产业发展迅速，其在地方经济中的地位日趋重要。在房地产业快速发展的同时，也出现了房地产投资增幅过猛、房地产价格上涨过快、结构性失调等一系列问题，尤其是房地产价格的过快上涨引发了广泛的关注。于是，学术界出现了一系列讨论房地产价格上涨原因的论述，其中不少观点认为地方政府出于地方财政增收的目的而介入房地产市场，从而抬高了房地产价格。但是，房地产价格上涨是否对地方财政收入起到了明显的增收作用？地方政府该如何理性看待房地产业发展所带来的税收收入？当前的学术界对这些问题并没有给出圆满的答案。为规范和稳定房地产市场的发展，克服地方政府的有限理性行为，本文对这些问题的进一步研究是非常必要的。本文的主要思路和逻辑结构为：首先，对房地产及地方财政收入的相关概念进行了界定，并详细论述了房地产价格波动对地方财政收入的影响机制。其次，本文对上海房地产市场和地方财政收入的特点了进行了简要的概括，并选用上海19个区县的有关统计数据，运用面板数据模型，实证分析了上海市全区县以及不同区域（中心城区、次中心城区和郊区）房地产价格对地方财政收入的影响效应，并在其后的章节中就实证结果产生的原因进行了剖析和研究。最后，根据前文的研究结果对文章进行总结并得出结论。本文通过对上海房地产价格波动对地方财政收入影响的系统研究，最终得到了以下三点结论：第一，房地产价格波动通过影响房地产开发投资、房地产销售和房地产租赁市场的发展作用于地方财政收入，在对上海市全区县的实证分析中得出房地产价格和地方财政收入成正相关关系的结论。第二，由于房地产价格弹性区域间存在差异和各地区地方财政收入对房地产业的依赖性不同，从而导致了不同地区房地产价格波动对地方财政收入的影响程度存在差异。第三，地方政府应该理性对待房地产市场的发展，不应该依赖房地产价格上涨对地方财政的增收效应。在此基础上，本文提出以下三条政策建议：第一，规范土地供应，合理确定土地价格；第二，调整住房供应结构，增加中低价位住房供给；第三，整顿房地产市场秩序，抑制房地产投机行为。关键词：房地产价格地方财政收入面板数据模型AbstractIn the last few years,the real estate industry developed so fast that it plays amore important role in the local economy.In the meantime,some problems occurredsuch as the excessive increasing of real estate investment,over speed of real estateprice rising and imbalance of industrial structure,especially the abnormal soaring ofthe price.Therefore,there comes up a series of statement on the reason of the rising ofreal estate price,among which there are some arguments that attribute the rapid pricerising to the local government intending to increase the local government revenues.However,how does the real estate price play a positive influence on the increasing ofthe local government revenues?And how should the local government deal with thetax revenues bringing by the development of the real estate industry rationally?Thereare still no comprehensive answers to these questions.In order to standardize andstabilize the development of real estate market and conquer the limit rational action oflocal government,it is very necessary to carry out a deep research on these questions.The main ideas and logical structure of this paper is:Firstly,this paper definesthe relevant concepts of real estate and local fiscal revenues,and elaborates theaffection mechanism of the fluctuation of real estate price on the local fiscal revenues.Secondly,this paper offers an easy analysis to the characters of real estate market andlocal fiscal revenues of Shanghai,and by selecting the historic statistical data about 19districts and counties of Shanghai and different districts(including center districts,sub-center districts and suburban districts),and offers profound analysis to thefindings.Finally,this paper summarizes and draws the conclusion.Based on our study on the effect of real estate price fluctuating plays on the localrevenues,we finally get the following points:Firstly,the fluctuation of real estateprice influences the local government fiscal revenues through affecting thedevelopment of the real estate developing,selling and leasing markets,and during theempirical analysis no all counties of Shanghai,it draws that the real estate price has apositive correction with local fiscal revenues changes in the same direction,namely,the rising of real estate price will increase the local fiscal revenues and contrarily,thefalling of real estate price will decrease the local fiscal revenues.Secondly,due todifferences of real estate price elasticity and dependence of local fiscal revenues onreal estate industry,the degrees of influence that real estate fluctuation plays on localfiscal revenues are different among districts.The same fluctuating range of real estateprice creates more influence on local fiscal revenues of sub-center districts than thoseof center and suburban districts.Finally,the local government should deal with thedevelopment of real estate rationally,should not depend on the positive effect broughtby the real estate price rising.On the one hand,the contribution created by the risingof real estate price is just periodic.On the other hand,the rising of real estate priceneeds the supports of economic fundamentals.The local governments one-sideddependence on real estate industry will result in the lopsided industrial structure andthe deviation of house prices from the economic fundamentals.Once the falling ofhouse price happens,it will create a great impact on local economy and fiscalrevenues.This paper also put forward three pieces of policy advice based on thewhole analysis:Firstly,make sure the land supplying in a proper way and put the landprice on a reasonable level;Secondly,change the housing supply structure and expandthe house supply of middle-low price;Thirdly,regulate the order of real estate marketand restrict the speculative activities of the real estate industry.Keywords:Real estate price Local fiscal revenues Panel-data Model目录摘要ABSTRACT第一章绪论.