U.S. TRAVEL AND TOURISM OUTLOOK AND TRENDS Research, Idea & Promotion,www.rolandberger.com,TIA Mission Statement,The mission of the Travel Industry Association of America is to represent the whole of the U.S. travel industry to promote and facilitate increased travel to and within the United States.,Travel and Tourism - 2003,Americas 3rd Largest Retail Sales Industry $555 billion total expenditures $95 billion in tax revenue for federal, state and local governments One of Americas Largest Employers Employs 7.2 million people directly. Tourism is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd largest employer in 30 states and the District of Columbia $158.4 billion in travel-generated payroll,Source: Travel Industry Association of America (TIA),Where We Were,Tumbling from the Peaks Between 2000 and 2003,Domestic business travel down 15% Domestic airline travel down 14% Overseas travel to the U.S. down 30%,International Visitor Arrivals to U.S. from Key Countries,2003 % Change Recovery to (in millions) 2003/2000 2000 Expected Canada 12.7 -14% 2007 United Kingdom 3.9 -16 2006 Japan 3.2 -37 Beyond 2007 Germany 1.2 -34 Beyond 2007 France 0.7 -37 Beyond 2007 Brazil 0.4 -53 Beyond 2007 Argentina 0.2 -72 Beyond 2007,Source: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries,Bright Spot,Domestic Leisure Travel Slow but steady growth Stay closer to home Highway travel Short getaways Visits to small towns, rural areas Economize,Travel Performance First Three Quarters 2004,During Jan Sept, 2004, domestic travel up nearly 3% Leisure travel up 2.0%, exceeded by 6.8% gain in business/convention travel Strong gains in air and hotel volume over 2003 International travel to U.S. exceeding expectations,Source: Travel Industry Association of America,Visitor Trends Occurring More in Past Year,Source: Travel Industry Association of America,Percent of TIA Members Reporting,NTA Operators Products,Source: National Tour Association,Percent of NTA Operators,RV Travel Strong,7.8% of all U.S. vehicle-owning households own an RV, up from 7.3% in 1997 7.2 million RVs on the road, compared to 6.4 million in 1997 RV Shipments Up 14% in 2004 RV Rentals Up Nearly 33% in 2003 and 2004 Combined 6.4% of RV Rentals by International Visitors,Source: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association,National Parks and Public Lands,National Park Visitation up 4% through November 2004; Sale of Park Passes up 8% See Americas National Parks partnership with TIA, National Park Service and National Park Foundation,Travel Policies Air Business Travelers 2004 and 2002,Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel Association,Percent of Air Business Travelers,Alternative Technologies Used By Business Travelers in Past Year, 2004,Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel Association,Percent of Business Travelers,Effectiveness and Efficiency of Technology to Replace Travel, 2004 and 2002,Source: Travel Industry Association of America and National Business Travel Association,Percent of Air Business Travelers Top Two Boxes,AUTO TRAVEL PERFORMANCE,U.S. auto travel up 2% through September 2004 Still holding up due to: Shifts from air, especially for short-distance trips Closer-to-home travel Increasing interest in family travel Increased interest in RVs,Airline Turbulence,Domestic air travel up 5% over 2003, but still 10% below 2000. International is up 14% over 2003, but better yet, up 5% over 2000. Exchange rates make U.S. even more of a bargain US Air, United and ATA in bankruptcy Airline losses $8 billion in 2004; $23 billion between 2001 - 2003,U.S. Hotel Performance Strengthens In 2004,Source: Smith Travel Research,% Change over Prior Year,Changes to Domestic Advertising and Marketing Programs,Source: Travel Industry Association of America,Among 90% of Members with Domestic Marketing Programs,Where are We Going?,Americans Economic Assessments Are Mixed,41% now rate economic conditions as positive, up slightly 48% say economy getting better vs. 42% who say it is getting worse Noticeable decline in citing economy as most important problem facing America now 30% vs. 38% - 40% in autumn of 2004 Only 33% says its a good time to “find a quality job”, vs. 62% who say its a bad time,Source: Gallup Surveys,U.S. Leisure Outlook,Leisure travel intentions remain strong Trends of the last few years will continue but some return to more normal patterns Growth in air travel exceeding that of auto travel Continued focus on family and connections but greater participation in other activities too Spending up 4% in 2004 over 2003,Domestic Leisure Travel Will Continue to Grow Slowly,Million of Person-Trips,Source: Travel Industry Association of America,Domestic Business Travel Will