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项目开发过程与 投资项目评估,目 标,1.全面了解项目开发过程 2.明确每一环节的主要工作 3.掌握在项目评估中常用的模型 4.了解投资项目评估的基本方法 5.掌握项目开发过程中必要的商务写作方法与技巧,项目开发过程 Project development process,项目预案,市场调研,商业环境分析 (S.T.E.P),行业分析 (Porters five forces),现状分析 (S.W.O.T),可行性分析,商业计划,实施,项目预案 Proposal,Project description(项目综述) Background information/ Statement of problem Project detail Goals and objectives (目标) Methods (方法) Staff/Administration (员工和管理部门) Available resources (可用的资源) Needed resources (需要的资源) Personnel (人员) Budget(预算) Supplies (供给) Facilities (设备等便利条件) Evaluation Plan (评估计划),市场调查 Marketing Research,Definition The process by which a company obtains/ collects specific information relating to its competitive situation for the purposes of making better quality decisions. often seen as a cost, should be seen as an investment,市场调查过程 The marketing research process,Define the problem (限定问题) Define the appropriate data sources(限定合适的数据源) Collect the data (收集数据) Analyse the data (数据分析) Interpret and report the findings(解释并报告调查的结果),市场调查的主要内容 Key areas for marketing research,Market size(市场规模) Market trends (市场趋势) Market potential (市场潜力) Company brand/image(公司品牌/形象) Customer behaviour (顾客行为) Customer needs/wants(顾客需求),Customer satisfaction(顾客满意度) Competitor activities(竞争者活动) Competitor performance (竞争者表现) Wider business environment (商业大环境),二手资料和一手资料 Secondary Data and Primary Data,Secondary data Advantages Can be more accurate Can be more comprehensive Cheaper/quicker than primary data Can avoid unnecessary primary data collection Disadvantages Relevance? Accurate? Bias?,Primary data Interviews Surveys Mails Telephone Personal Online Experiments Observation,商业环境分析 Business environment analysis,S.T.E.P. model - Social factors (社会因素) - Technological factors(技术因素) - Economic factors(经济因素) - Political factors(政策因素),行业分析 Industry analysis,PORTERS FIVE FORCES,New Entrants,Suppliers,Buyers,Substitute,Industry Competitors Intensity of rivalry,新进入者的威胁 Threat of New Entrants,Entry barriers(进入障碍 ) Proprietary product differences (产品差别) Brand identity (品牌识别) Switching costs (转移成本) Capital requirement (资本需求) Access to distribution (销售渠道) Absolute cost advantages (绝对成本优势) Government policy (政府政策) Expected retaliation (预期反击),供应商操纵力 Bargaining Power of Suppliers,Determinants of supplier power (供应商操纵力的决定因素) Differentiation of inputs (供应的独特性) Presence of substitute inputs (替代品的存在) Supplier concentration (供应商集中程度) Importance of volume to supplier (批量对供应商的重要程度) Impact of inputs on cost or differentiation(对于成本及独特性的影响) Threats of forward integration (前置整合的威胁),购买者操纵力 The Bargaining Power of Buyers,Determinants of buyer power (购买者操纵力的决定因素) Bargaining leverage (交易影响因素) Buyer concentration vs firm concentration (购买者集中程度) Buyer volume (购买者容量) Buyer switching costs (购买者转移成本) Buyer information (购买者信息) Price sensitivity (价格敏感度) Price of total purchases (总购买价格) Product differences (产品差别) Brand identity (品牌识别) Impact on quality/performance (对质量/行为的影响) Buyer profits (购买者的利益) Decision makers incentives (决策者的驱动力),替代品的威胁 Threat of Substitutes,Determinants of substitution threat (替代品威胁的决定因素) Relative price/performance of substitutes(替代品的相对价格/表现) Switching costs(转移成本) Buyer propensity to substitute(购买者对替代品的倾向),行业竞争状况 The rivalry in the industry,Industry competitors(行业竞争者) How many How they perform How they position or differentiate Whats the core competencies of them Is there a niche in the market,现状分析 Situation Analysis,The key components of situation analysis for marketing strategy development,收集市场信息,内部分析,竞争者分析,市场分析,内部优劣势分析,外部机会和风险分析,SWOT,可行性分析 Feasibility Study,目的:可行性报告是为了减小企业的投资风险和错误成本,提高决策的成功率。 投资项目评估 我们应该做这个项目吗?,可行性报告格式 Outline of Feasibility Study,Executive summary (执行概述) Introduction (引言) Overview of the project(项目综述) Rationale for the project(背景介绍:包括经济,政治,技术,文化等方面,宏观与微观的市场,用户、供应者、竞争者分析) Strategies for the project (SWOT) Evaluation of alternative strategies and recommendations(作出三种预测和投资回报分析,即最佳状况,正常状况,最差状况,如果最差状况可以接受,方能通过) Economic, financial, and accounting assumptions(设定条件:对经济、金融、以及财务计算作出假设) Methods for raising capital (筹集资金的办法),可行性报告格式 Outline of Feasibility Study,Capital structure (资本结构) Cash flow analysis for 5 years(5年现金流分析) Varying projects scenarios for sensitivity study and stress tests(风险分析:对潜在市场变化,潜在用户变化,潜在竞争形势变化,风险与潜在风险,问题与潜在问题有一个具体的分析和应变措施,把意外情况的影响控制在最低水平) Conclusions (结论),商业计划 Business Plan,1. Executive summary (执行概要) 2.Company vision/mission (公司宗旨) 3. Product (产品或服务) 4.Business environment(商业环境) 5. Industry analysis(行业分析) 6. SWOT,7. Investment requirement 8. Management (管理团队) 9.Organization Construction(组织结构) 10. Financial issues (财务问题) 11. Implement(实施方案: “里程碑”式的分阶段检查标准和时间表) 12. Attachment,实施 Implement,Make things happen People Time managing/Schedule Communication Coordination Control,祝你成功! THE END,
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