July, 2001,COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALS,Logistics Services Industry Environment & Trend Analysis - COSCO Comments and A.T. Kearney Remarks,The contents of this document were prepared by A.T. Kearney and may not be used, altered or disclosed to other parties, without the written permission of A.T. Kearney. The information contained in this document has been obtained from external sources which A.T. Kearney believes are reliable. However, A.T. Kearney can make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or projections derived therefrom.,Table of Contents,Executive Summary Market Size & Growth Global China Service Demand Global Trends China Trends Competitive Environment Global China Regulatory Environment Information Technology Appendix,Executive Summary,A.T. Kearneys definition of the logistics services industry,Structuring and managing, on behalf of cargo owners, solutions involving some combination of parts of the supply chain (i.e. transportation, warehousing, (de)consolidation, etc.),The logistics service industry represent a tremendous growth opportunity, both globally and in China,Market Characteristic,Conclusion,Customers are increasingly demanding high value logistics service solutions, requiring global reach and advanced supply chain management capabilities,Increasing demand for global reach and capabilities fuels consolidation as large full service providers are positioning themselves for success,Chinas entry into WTO is expected to have two main implications - the logistics market will grow rapidly, and competitive intensity will dramatically increase,Strong IT capabilities is becoming a core capability of logistics services providers and is critical to building a logistics services business,Market Size & Growth,Service Demand,Competitive Environment,Regulatory Environment,Information Technology,Source: A.T. Kearney,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000. The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five years,The China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry into the WTO and the subsequent opening of the market to foreign competition,Industry Scenario 2006,Rapid increase in M&A activities Key alliances formed within the next 2-3 years,Rapid expansion of global players offering sophisticated end-to-end solution, including logistics, transportation and IT,Implementation of e-commerce initiatives and increasing dependence on IT network,Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances,Global Competitors,Technology,The logistics market will grow rapidly Competitive intensity will dramatically increase,WTO Entry,Source: A.T. Kearney,1. Market Size & Growth,The global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000,The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000 The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% over the next 5 years The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five years The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing, and transport management The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growth Customer electronics, automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in China,The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five years,The China logistics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China The transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs - indicating a major improvement opportunity In Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai In Inland China, the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river region Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logistics Favorable macro economic outlook Public policy and spending Increasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needs Growing IT and E-business,Market Size & Growth - Global,The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000,Source: Chinainfobank, CSFB, A.T. Kearney,Global Transportation and Logistics Market Size (2000),Transportation and related activities handled by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers themselves(e.g. private fleet, private warehousing),Discrete sets of transportation and related services outsourced by manufacturers, wholesalers, r