36,Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy 宏观经济政策的五个争论问题,Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy,1. Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy? 2. Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion? 3. Should the central bank aim for zero inflation? 4. Should the government balance its budget? 5. Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?,宏观经济政策的五个争论问题,1. 货币与财政决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？ 2.货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择? 3. 中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗? 4. 财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？ 5. 应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗?,Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy? 货币与财政决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？,Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy,The economy is inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate. Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.,赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济,经济是本质上不稳定的，如果放任不管，经济就倾向于发生波动。 政策可以管理总需求，目的是抵消这种内在的不稳定，降低经济波动的严重性。,Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy,There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle. Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment.,赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济,没有理由使社会受到经济周期高涨与低落的折磨。 货币与财政政策可以稳定总需求，从而稳定生产和就业。,Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy,Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work. Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.,反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济,在需要采取行动到货币政策能发挥作用之间，货币政策对经济的作用要有一个相当长而且不可预见的时滞。 许多研究表明，在作出货币政策变动的6个月之内，这种变动对总需求的影响很小。,Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy,Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes. It can take years to propose, pass, and implement a major change in fiscal policy.,反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济,财政政策的作用有时滞，是因为政府改变支出与税收是一个漫长的政治过程。 提出、通过和实施一项重要的财政政策变动需要好几年的时间。,Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy,All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations. It might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal.,反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济,决策者经常是无意中扩大了而不是缩小了经济波动的程度。 如果决策者可以消除所有经济波动，这样做是合意的。,Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion? 货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择?,Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule,Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power. To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendarthe political business cycle.,赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定,相机抉择货币政策会受无能和滥用权利之苦。 在某种程度上，中央银行领导人与政治家结盟，相机抉择政策就会引起大选日期的经济波动政治性商业周期。,Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule,There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually docalled time inconsistency of policy. Because policymakers are so often time inconsistent, people are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.,赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定,也会存在决策者说他们要做什么和实际上做了什么之间的不一致性，这种不一致性被称为政策的时间不一致性。 由于决策者经常有这种时间不一致性，当中央银行领导人宣布他们打算降低通货膨胀时，人们往往表示怀疑。,Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule 赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定,Committing the Fed to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency. 让美联储实行稳健的货币增长政策会限制无能、滥用权利和时间不一致性。,Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule,An important advantage of discretionary monetary policy is its flexibility. Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.,反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定,相机抉择货币政策的一个重要优点是灵活性。 不灵活的政策将限制决策者对变化着的经济环境作出反应的能力。,Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule,The alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical. Also, the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.,反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定,所谓的时间不一致性和滥用权利的问题主要是想象出来的。 而且，政治性商业周期的重要性也很不明显。,Should the central bank aim for zero inflation? 中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？,Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation,Inflation confers no benefit to society, but it imposes several real costs. Shoeleather costs Menu costs Increased variability of relative prices Unintended changes in tax liabilities Confusion and inconvenience Arbitrary redistribution of wealth,赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀作为目标,通货膨胀并没有给社会带来什么好处，但引起了一些实际成本。 皮鞋成本 菜单成本 相对价格变动性提高 税收负担不合意的变动 混乱与不方便 财富任意再分配,Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation,降低通货膨胀是一项暂时有成本而长期有好处的政策。 一旦反通货膨胀带来的衰退过去，零通货膨胀的好处就会持续到来。,Con: The central bank should not aim for zero inflation,Zero inflation is probably unattainable, and to get there involves output, unemployment, and social costs that are too high. Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of inflation without actually reducing inflation.,反对：中央银行不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标,零通货膨胀可能实现不了，而且为了实现零通货膨胀要付出的产量、失业