OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITYDoing Business in IraqAmman, 5th June 2003Achmed Al-ShahrabaniMcKinsey & Company, Inc.AGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments AGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments Total area: 437,000 m2Limited arable landArable land: 11%Permanent crops: 1%Desert: 88%Largest governatesBaghdad (8.0m)Nineveh (2.1m)Basra (2.0m)Varying climate (Baghdad)Summer temp: 35-50Winter temp: 5-15Rainfall: 155mm/year Source:Country Watch, CIA world fact bookCar transport39,000 km paved roads765,000 privately registered passenger cars266,000 privately registered trucksAirMajor airports in Baghdad, Basra and MosulThree major railway routesBaghdadKirkukIrbilBaghdadMosulYurubiyahBaghdadMaagalUmm QasrTelecom3% penetration, no mobile networkUtilities 250 water treatment facilitiesPower generation capacity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MWGeography and climateInfrastructureThe majority of Iraq is characterized by desertOVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY Source:World outlook, EIU country risk report Iraq50% of population younger than 16 years28% of population is labor forceApproximately 51% males75% of population resides in urban areasThere is an estimated 1m2m Iraqis living in exileFertility rate 4.55 children per womenAdult literacy at 54%1.5-2.5 million foreign workersKey facts198019851990199520002002CAGR 3%CAGR 3%DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002Iraqi population amounts to more than 24 millionsMillionSource:CIA world fact book100% = 24.2mOthersArabs- Shia MuslimsKurds Sunni Muslims46212Arabs Sunni Muslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUPShia Muslims form Iraqs ethnic majority%Adult literacy at Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in 54% (vs. 75% in Iran)Iran)*From 6 to 23 years Source:EIU country profile Iraq 200219801998EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 1980 VS. 1998An increasing number of children does not receive formal educationESTIMATESource:Country WatchProven reservesUnproven potentialTotalGas Trillion m3, 2001OilBillion barrels, 2001OVERVIEW OF IRAQS NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVESIraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reservesESTIMATESource:BP Statistical review, 20021. Saudi Arabia2. Iraq3. UAE4. Kuwait5. IranOil, proved reservesBillion barrels, 2001Gas, proved reserves Trillion m3, 20011. Russia2. Iran3. Qatar4. Saudi Arabia5. UAE10. IraqRANKING OF BIGGEST NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES WORDWIDE which are the second largest in oil and the tenth largest in gasESTIMATE*Purchasing power parity method, current pricesSource:CIA World fact book; Country Watch; EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* - 1980 TO 2002Over the past decade, Iraqs real GDP fell by 50%USD billionESTIMATE-50%-50%GDP estimates GDP estimates for 2002 subject for 2002 subject to wide variation to wide variation (USD 24-60 (USD 24-60 billion)billion)*Purchasing power parity method, current pricesSource:CIA World Factbook; Country Watch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* PER CAPITA - 1980 TO 2002 and purchasing power parity on individual level even furtherUSD thousandsGDP/capita GDP/capita estimates estimates subject to wide subject to wide variation (USD variation (USD 1.000-2.500)1.000-2.500)-70%-70%Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003IraqIraqSaudiSaudiArabiaArabiaCOMPARISON OF GDP DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000Iraq has suffered a significant reduction in GDP over last 25 yearsin billion USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003IraqIraqSaudiSaudiArabiaArabiaCOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000In the late 70ties Iraqs GDP per capita was at par with Saudi Arabiain 000 USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000* Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 millionSource: EIU country profile IraqJordanIranIraqSaudi ArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA - 2002Iraqs current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and IranUSD thousands Source:Economist intelligence unit 2002; OANDA.COMIraqi inflation rates%19961997199819992000Exchange ratesIraqi Dinar per USD (black market rate) Huge budget deficits lead to “printing of money”BUT: Official exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 19832001200219961997 19981999200020012002Current exchange Current exchange rate ID 900- 1.000 = rate ID 900- 1.000 = 1 USD1 USDESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES 1996 TO 2002Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currencySource:EIU country dataExternal debt$bnIraqSyria JordanIran230-485230-48510109191113113% of GPD60-130Main causes of uncertainty areAccrued interest“Assistance” funds in Iran-Iraq warClaims following Gulf war 1991ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES - 2001Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt*Estimates range from $103.4 $129.4bn Source:Reuters; Institute for international Economics 25181310Saudi ArabiaGulf States ex