1 1 International Trends in Environmental Regulations for VehiclesSantiago, ChileSantiago, ChileMay 13, 2008May 13, 2008Michael P. WalshMichael P. WalshInternational ConsultantInternational ConsultantChairman, Board of Directors,Chairman, Board of Directors,International Council on Clean International Council on Clean TransportationTransportationMajor Global TrendsEnvironmental Concerns IncreasingParticlesGlobal WarmingCleaner and Cleaner Technologies Entering MarketplaceHeavy Duty Diesel VehiclesPassenger CarsMotorcyclesCleaner Fuels Increasingly CriticalSulfur Levels Approaching ZeroLead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing ConcernGrowth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-20021988-20024 4E:Changhong CHEN对外合作能源基金会交通项目基础数据机动车统计报表.xlsMost Vehicles Are In Cities5 5One Result: Serious Health ConcernsWHO Concludes 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PMNumerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.No Evidence of a ThresholdOzone, NO2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health ConcernsSlide Slide 6 6Source: Cohen et al, 2005PM10 in Major citiesEnergy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate (%) by Region 2004 - 2030In 2004,94 % of transport energy based on fossil oil.The share will only slightly decrease to 93 % in 2030. Source: IEA WEO 20060123456WorldOECDOECD North AmericaUSAOECD PacificJapanOECD EuropeEuropean UnionTransition EconomiesRussiaDeveloping CountriesDeveloping AsiaChinaIndiaLatin AmericaBrazilMiddle EastAfricaGrowth (% p.a.)BackgroundCarbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story!Transportation sector priorities10103 key interventionsFuel-efficient, low Emitting carsLow-carbon fuelsReduced vehicle-miles traveled through congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit, etc.Slide Slide 1111Technology Capable of Cleaning Vehicle Emissions Has Improved Dramatically in the Past 30-40 YearsThe Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and Underfloor ApplicationsLayered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stabilityIntegrated HC adsorption functions Mounting materials with improved durability High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates Insulation schemes for heat managementMaximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur FuelDiesel Particulate FiltersTrapped PMCell PlugsExhaust(PM, CO, HC)EnterCeramic HoneycombWallExhaust (CO2, H2O)OutIssues to balance:sulfate formationregeneration and back pressureFuel EconomyReductions:-80 to 95% PM-80-100% HC, CO-80%+ toxinsHow The Trap Functions Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition from non grey.from non grey.Gasoline and LPGG-DIConventional Diesel1818Current DPF Applications Millions of cars are equipped with DPF around worldAir TankUreaTankCatalyst Input TemperatureCatalyst Output TemperatureEngineSCR ConnectorECMDosing UnitJ1939 (Public)Air SolenoidUrea SensorSCR ControlExhaust Gas ProcessorSCR Solution System Architecture20Emissions control system for Euro VI Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC).MixerSCR + ASCDOC(optional)NOx sensorNOx sensorCalifornias ZEV HistoryZEV RegulationPZEVs createdCaFCP StartedAT PZEVs CreatedZEV Reg ImplementationFC Buses on-roadZEV - StatusGoals:Drive development of ZEVsSupports bridging technologies like HybridsMaximizes air quality benefits with PZEVsStatusPZEVs marketed by all automakers subject to the regulation, 425,000 PZEVs sold to dateHybrids very successful in the marketplace, 70,000 AT PZEV hybrids sold to date100 Fuel cell vehicles being placed in California in real world demonstration fleetsHonda Civic Hybrid AT PZEVNear-Zero Emission VehiclesLifetime emissions (VOC+NOx)Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs)Currently 20 models for sale, including 4 HEVs250,000 annual sales (14%) in 20051,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)Model YearVOC + NOx (kg)Reduction19701900-2005 PZEV899.6%Near-Zero Emission VehiclesBMW 325iChrysler SebringFord FocusFord FusionFord Escape HEVHonda AccordHonda Civic HEVHonda insight HEVHyundai ElantraKia SpectraMazda 3Mazda 6Mitsubishi GalantNissan AltimaNissan SentraSubaru OutbackToyota CamryToyota Prius HEVVW JettaVolvo S40Fleet Demonstrations100 Fuel cell light duty vehicles to dateUp to 7 Fuel cell busesTesting, outreach, data collection, validationZEV Technology Review - CARBPlug In Hybrids Are EmergingElectric bikes in China, P.R.China Produced Approximately 15 Million Electric bikes in 2007This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and motorcycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several major Chinese citiesSources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006Which Countries Are Getting Clean Technologies?Clean FuelsStringent Standards Including Advanced Technology MandatesStrong IncentivesEconomicOtherMy Global Vision For 2015Every New Die