Chapter 28 Unemployment and Its Natural Rate 28.1 IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENTCategoriesofUnemploymentTheproblemofunemploymentisusuallydividedintotwocategories.Thelong-runproblemandtheshort-runproblem:ThenaturalrateofunemploymentThecyclicalrateofunemployment28.1IDENTIFYINGUNEMPLOYMENTNatural Rate of UnemploymentThenaturalrateofunemployment is unemploymentthatdoesnotgo awayonitsowneveninthelongrun.Itistheamountofunemploymentthattheeconomynormallyexperiences.28.1IDENTIFYINGUNEMPLOYMENTCyclical UnemploymentCyclicalunemployment referstotheyear-to-yearfluctuationsinunemploymentarounditsnaturalrate.Itisassociatedwithwithshort-termupsanddownsofthebusinesscycle.28.1IDENTIFYINGUNEMPLOYMENTDescribingUnemploymentThree Basic Questions:Howdoesgovernmentmeasuretheeconomysrateofunemployment?Whatproblemsariseininterpretingtheunemploymentdata?Howlongaretheunemployedtypicallywithoutwork?28.1.1 How Is Unemployment Measured?UnemploymentismeasuredbytheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS).Itsurveys60,000randomlyselectedhouseholdseverymonth.ThesurveyiscalledtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Basedontheanswerstothesurveyquestions,theBLSplaceseachadultintooneofthreecategories:EmployedUnemployedNotinthelaborforce28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?TheBLSconsidersaperson(anadultifheorsheisover16yearsold.)28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonisconsideredemployed ifheorshehasspentmostofthepreviousweekworkingatapaidjob.28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonisunemployedifheorsheisontemporarylayoff,islookingforajob,oriswaitingforthestartdateofanewjob.28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonwhofitsneitherofthesecategories,suchasa full-time student, homemaker, or retiree, is not in the labor force. 28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?LaborForceThelabor force isthetotalnumberofworkers,includingboththeemployedandtheunemployed.TheBLSdefinesthelaborforceasthesumoftheemployedandtheunemployed.Figure1TheBreakdownofthePopulationin2001Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson LearningAdultPopulation(211.9 million)Labor Force(141.8 million)Employed(135.1 million)Not in labor force(70.1 million)Unemployed (6.7 million)28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Theunemployment rate iscalculatedasthepercentageofthelaborforcethatisunemployed.Thelabor-force participation rate isthepercentageoftheadultpopulationthatisinthelaborforce.28.1.1HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Table1TheLabor-MarketExperiencesofVariousDemographicGroupsFigure2UnemploymentRateSince1960108642019701975196019651980198519902005Percent ofLabor Force19952000Natural rate ofunemploymentUnemployment rateFigure3LaborForceParticipationRatesforMenandWomenSince19501008060402001950195519601965197019751980198519902000Labor-ForceParticipationRate (in percent)WomenMen199528.1.2 Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To?Itisdifficulttodistinguishbetweenapersonwhoisunemployedandapersonwhoisnotinthelaborforce.Discouraged workers,peoplewhowouldliketoworkbuthavegivenuplookingforjobsafteranunsuccessfulsearch,dontshowupinunemploymentstatistics.Otherpeoplemayclaimtobeunemployedinordertoreceivefinancialassistance,eventhoughtheyarentlookingforwork.28.1.3HowLongAretheUnemployedwithoutWork?Mostspellsofunemploymentareshort.Mostunemploymentobservedatanygiventimeislong-term.Mostoftheeconomysunemploymentproblemisattributabletorelativelyfewworkerswhoarejoblessforlongperiodsoftime.28.1.4WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Inanideallabormarket,wageswouldadjusttobalancethesupplyanddemandforlabor,ensuringthatallworkerswouldbefullyemployed.28.1.4WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Frictional unemployment referstotheunemploymentthatresultsfromthetimethatittakestomatchworkerswithjobs.Inotherwords,ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforthejobsthatarebestsuittheirtastesandskills.28.1.4WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Structural unemployment istheunemploymentthatresultsbecausethenumberofjobsavailableinsomelabormarketsisinsufficienttoprovideajobforeveryonewhowantsone.28.2 JOB SEARCH28.2 JOB SEARCHJob search Onereasonwhyeconomiesalwaysexperiencesomeunemploymentisjobsearch.Jobsearchistheprocessbywhichworkersfindappropriatejobsgiventheirtastesandskills.resultsfromthefactthatittakestimeforqualifiedindividualstobematchedwithappropriatejobs.28.2JOBSEARCHThisunemploymentisdifferentfromtheothertypesofunemployment.Itisnotcausedbyawageratehigherthanequilibrium.Itiscausedbythetimespentsearchingforthe“right”job.28.2.1WhySomeFrictionalUnemploymentisInevitableFrictionalUnemploymentisinevitablesimplebecausetheeconomyisalwayschanging.Changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregionsarecalledsectoralshifts.Ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforandfindjobsinnewsectors.28.2.2PublicPolicyandJobSearchGovernmentprogramscanaffectthetimeittakesunemployedworkerstofindnewjobs.Theseprogramsincludethefollowing:Government-runemploymentagenciesPublictrainingprogramsUnemploymentinsurance28.2.2PublicPolicyandJobSearchGovernment-run employment agencies 政府管理的就业机构giveoutinformationaboutjob vacanciesinordertomatchworkersandjobsmorequickly.Public training programs公共培