LEAD AUTHORSRachel EllehuusSeth G. JonesMAY 2022THE CHALLENGE OFEUR OPEAN POLITICAL WILLA JOINT REPORT OF THE CSIS EUROPE, RUSSIA, ANDEURASIA PROGRAM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMCONTRIBUTING AUTHORColin WallMAY 2022THE CHALLENGE OF EUROPEAN POLITIC AL WILLLEAD AUTHORSRachel Ellehuus Seth G. JonesA Joint Report of the C S IS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and International Security ProgramLanham Boulder New York LondonCONTRIBUTING AUTHORColin WallABOUTi i iTHE CHALLENGE OFEUROPEAN POLITICAL WILLABOUT CSISThe Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the worlds greatest challenges.Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000.CSISs purpose is to define the future of national security. We are guided by a distinct set of values nonpartisanship, independent thought, innovative thinking, cross-disciplinary scholarship, integrity and professionalism, and talent development. CSISs values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact.CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise, judgment, and robust networks to their research, analysis, and recommendations. We organize conferences, publish, lecture, and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge, awareness, and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public.CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influencers. We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world.CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). 2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.ISBN: 978-1-5381-7051-9 (pb); 978-1-5381-7052-6(eBook)Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036202-887-0200 | www.csis.orgRowman & Littlefield 4501 Forbes BoulevardLanham, MD 20706301-459-3366 | i vTHE CHALLENGE OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL WILLACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTSWe would like to thank numerous individuals for their assistance during the research, writing, editing, and publication phases of this report. Among the most important were the numerous U.S. and European government officials and subject matter experts we interviewed over the course of the research. Most preferred not to be named, though we thank them nonetheless.Thanks to Phyllis Berry and William “Brad” Berkley for their comments on multiple drafts, along with Sean Monaghan and Pierre Morcos.At CSIS, Catrina Doxsee, Jared Thompson, and Grace Hwang were extremely helpful in providing research assistance and analysis.Finally, we would like to thank CSISs iLab team for their outstanding job in editing, formatting, and publishing the document.This report is made possible by generous support from SAIC.CONTENTSvTHE CHALLENGE OFEUROPEAN POLITICAL WILLCONTENTSExecutive Summary_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ viCHAPTER 1: Introduction _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 CHAPTER 2: Factors Affecting National Political Will _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 6 CHAPTER 3: Case Studies _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 11 CHAPTER 4: Military Missions _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 25 CHAPTER 5: Conclusions _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 35 About the Authors _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 39 APPENDIX: Military Operations Involving European Countries _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 40 Endnotes _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 45INTRODUCTIONv iTHE CHALLENGE OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL WILLEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly changed the security landscape in Europe, bringing a major conventional war to the continent and threatening the security of European countries. The invasion also highlighted the importance of two historical challenges to European security: a lack of capabilities to perform military missions and a lack of political will. This report builds on a previous CSIS report, titled The Future of European Military Capabilities and Missions, which analyzed the evolution of European military capabilities. Based on that work, this report examines political will, which includes the proclivity and decision of political leaders to conduct military missionsfrom peacekeeping operations to large-scale combat. Political will is an important component of a states decision to initiate and sustain the use offorce, though not necessarily a determining factor in the outcome of war.Consequently, this report asks two main questions: