R E P O R TA UGUS T 20 22 I N T E L L I G E N C E PRO J E CT/D E F E N S E PRO J E CT Old Friends and New Horizons:Recalibrating American and French Indo-Pacific StrategyVictoria Mayo Eric Marguerite Michael MinerIntelligence Project/Defense ProjectBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School79 JFK StreetCambridge,MA 02138https:/www.belfercenter.org/project/intelligence-project https:/www.belfercenter.org/project/defense-projectStatements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the author(s)and do not implyendorsement by Harvard University,Harvard Kennedy School,or the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.Copyright 2022,President and Fellows of Harvard CollegeR E P O R TA UGUS T 20 22 I N T E L L I G E N C E PRO J E CT/D E F E N S E PRO J E CT Old Friends and New Horizons:Recalibrating American and French Indo-Pacific StrategyVictoria Mayo Eric Marguerite Michael MineriiOld Friends and New HorizonsAbout the AuthorsVictoria J.Mayo is an active-duty U.S.Air Force Lieutenant Colonel and a National Security Fellow with the Defense Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.Eric Marguerite is an active-duty officer in the French Army and a research fellow with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.Michael Miner teaches at Harvard University including courses on intel-ligence,strategy,and national security.He is an Associate Fellow with the Intelligence Project in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvards Kennedy School of Government.About the ProjectThe Intelligence Project seeks to build a new generation of intelligence practitioners prepared to serve in a rapidly changing world and to help future policymakers and intelligence consumers understand how best to interact with intelligence to gain a decision advantage.Building onmulti-disciplinary research being conducted at the Belfer Center,from his-tory to human rights and cyber technologies,the Intelligence Project links intelligence agencies with Belfer researchers,Faculty,and Kennedy School students,to enrich their education and impact public policy.iiiBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolDisclaimerThe opinions,conclusions,and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of Harvard University,the Kennedy School of Government,the views of the Air University,the United States Air Force,the Department of Defense,or any other U.S.government agency.They do not necessarily represent the official policy,position or views of the French Armed Forces,the French Ministry of Armed Forces,or any other French government agency.Table of ContentsExecutive Summary.1Collaboration:Positive-Sum Outputs.3Coordination:Zero-Sum Outputs.5Consultation:Positive Output Despite Disagreement.6Introduction.7 1.Part I:The US&France in the Indo-Pacific.111.1.The Indo-Pacific State of Play:Interests and Challenges.11 Interests.11 Challenges.121.2.Common Objectives and Strategic Convergence.20 The United States.21France.22The European Union.222.Part II:Chinas Imperatives in the Indo-Pacific.252.1.Avoiding Chinese Domination in the Indo-Pacific.252.2.Chinas Stated Intentions:Chinas 2049 Initiative.262.3.Indo-Pacific Domination:Gateway toward 2035 and 2049 Objectives.29 Peripheral Diplomacy.29 Community of Common Destiny.30 One China.312.4.Constraining Chinas Strategic Objectives.32Obstacles to Economic Domination.33 Trade Regulation.35Armament Exports.37Diplomatic Competition.382.5.Gray Zone Operations:Chinas Toolkit against the FrenchU.S.Impediment.44Defining Gray Zone Operations.45Chinas Use of Gray Zone Operations in the Physical Space.46Chinas Use of Gray Zone Operations in the Cognitive Space.57vBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy School3.Part IIIRoadmap toward 2049.773.1.Reinventing the North Atlantics Oldest Alliance.773.2.Diplomacy,Economy,Information,and Security:Imperatives of Collaboration,Coordination,and Consultation.793.3.Collaboration:Positive-Sum Outputs.81Transnational Threat Collaboration.82Economic Collaboration.82Freedom of Navigation Collaboration.83Regional Military Collaboration.85Intelligence Sharing.873.4.Coordination:Zero-Sum Outputs.88Diplomatic Coordination.88Strategic Competition Coordination.89Security Coordination.903.5.Consultation:Positive Output Despite Disagreement.91 Different Worldviews.91 Trade.92 Security.92 Consultations toward Pareto.93 Information and Intelligence.93Conclusion.951Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs|Harvard Kennedy SchoolExecutive SummaryFrance and the United States are the two Western countries with the highest sovereign interests in the Indo-Pacific region.Ensuring sovereign integrity and the security of their citizens are the first strategic pr