我国银行理财产品发展规模对货币政策传导机 制的影响研究 摘 要 关于银行理财产品的概念，最早是源于中国银行为了扩大外汇的对公客户数量而提出的。而随着中国经济的持续发展，银行理财产品已经成为了银行、证券、保险等金融业发展自身业务的重要途径。目前我国金融市场的发展还相对比较落后，利率市场化改革也只是刚刚起步，银行、证券、保险都是分业经营与分业监管，这样的金融环境一定程度上促进了银行理财产品的发展。银行理财产品的发展改变了金融市场的环境，从而影响了货币政策传导机制的有效运行，特别是其中一部分产品并没有得到有效的金融监管，对货币政策的效果的有效的实施也产生了一定的影响，这很大程度上干扰了市场的有效运行。我们通过分析银行理财产品的发展对我国货币政策传导机制的影响，找出两者之间的关联，并得出相应的政策建议，对于货币政策的有效实施具有一定的意义。 本文首先通过对我国银行理财产品发展的历程进行介绍，将它分为三个阶段；接着简述银行理财产品的信用生成机制，分析其给市场带来的变化；然后本文对我国货币政策传导机制进行一定的理论分析，其中，我们特别提出了中国货币政策传导机制；最后结合实证分析，构建模型，得出结论，并针对规范银行理财产品发展提出针对性的政策意见。 基于文章的理论分析和实证分析，我们得出了如下结论：银行理财产品的确对我国货币政策传导产生了影响。这种影响主要是通过信贷机制实现的，银行理财产品对于实体经济的支持作用与银行信贷类似。而银行理财产品通过货币机制影响实体经济和货币政策的路径并不显著。关键词： 银行理财产品；货币政策传导机制；银信合作产品 The Study on The Effect of The Development Scale of ChinasBank-financingProductson Monetary PolicyTransmissionMechanism AbstractTheconceptof bankfinancialproductswasfirstlyputforwardbytheBankofChinaforpurposeofincreasingthenumberofforeignexchangebusinesscustomers.However,withthesustainable economic development of China, bank financialproductshavebecome animportantwayforthefinancialindustrylikebanks,securitiesandinsurancestodeveloptheirownbusiness. Currently,thedevelopmentofChinas financialmarketstilllagsbehind andthe reform ofinterest rate liberalizationhasjuststarted. Besides, banks, securitiesandinsurances are allmanagedandsupervisedseparatelyandsuch financialenvironmenthasimproved the developmentoffinancialproductstosomeextent.However,thedevelopmentof financialproductshaschangedthe financialmarketenvironment,therebyinfluencingtheeffectiveoperationoftheconductionmechanismofmonetarypolicy.Especially,some financialinstrumentshavenotreceivedeffective financialregulation, whichexerts certainImpacts on the effective implementationof monetarypolicy. Asaresult, theefficientoperation of market isdisturbedtoagr-eatextent.ThroughanalyzingtheeffectsofbankFinancial products developmentonChinasconductionmechanismofmonetarypolicy,theConnection between them will befoundoutan-drelevantpolicyadviceswillbeobtained,whichhascertaineffectsontheefficientimplementationofmonetarypolicy. Firstly, the paper introduces the development history of bank financial products, divides it into three stages; elaborates the credit generation mechanism of bank financial products, analyzes the changes that it brought to the market; and makes a theoretical analysis on Chinas monetary policy transmission mechanism, in which, we highlight Chinese monetary policy transmission mechanism. Secondly, the paper analyzes the impacts of bank financial products on monetary policy transmission body and channel, obtains the theoretical analysis of the impacts of bank financial products on monetary policy transmission. Finally, it combines empirical analysis, establishes models, draws conclusions and proposes specific policy advices for the development of standardized bank financial products. Based on the papers theoretical and empirical analyses, we draw the following conclusions: bank financial products indeed exert impact on Chinas monetary policy transmission. The impact is mainly achieved through credit mechanism, bank financial products support real economy in a way which is very similar to bank credit, this is the main reason why bank financial product is called shadow banking. However, the path that bank financial product uses monetary mechanism to affect real economy and monetary policy is not clear.【Key words】： bank financial products; monetary policy transmission mechanism; bank-trust cooperation products目 录 摘 要I 目 录IV1、绪论1 1.1 研究背景和意义1 1.1.1研究背景1 1.1.2研究意义2 1.2国内外研究现状综述2 1.2.1国外研究现状2 1.2.2国内研究现状4 1.3研究内容和方法6 1.3.1研究内容6 1.3.2研究方法72、我国银行理财产品的发展规模及其信用生成机制分析8 2.1银行理财产品的概念9 2.2我国银行理财产品发展规模10 2.3我国银行理财产品的信用生成机制113、我国货币政策传导机制概述12 3.1货币政策传导的涵义12 3.2我国货币政策传导机制演进13 3.2.1我国货币政策传导机制的特殊性13 3.2.2我国主要货币政策传导机制134、我国银行理财产品发展规模对货币政策传导机制影响的理论分析17 4.1我国银行理财产品发展规模对货币政策传导机制的微观影响17 4.1.1我国银行理财产品发展规模对货币传导机制的影响17 4.1.2我国银行理财产品发展规模对信贷传导机制的影响18 4.2我国银行理财产品发展规模对货币政策传导机制的宏观影响19 4.3小结205、我国银行理财产品发展规模对货币政策传导机制影响的实证分析21 5.1实证方法21 5.2变量的选择以及处理21 5.3数据的实证分析22 5.3.1单位根检验22 5.3.2协整检验24 5.3.3格兰杰因果检验25 5.3.4模型结果分析27 5.3.5脉冲响应分析27 5.3.6方差分析306、研究结论及政策建议31 6.1研究结论31 6.2政策建议32 6.2.1加强银行理财产品的信息公开32 6.2.2尽快推进利率市场化改革33 6.2.3完善货币统计口径33 6.2.4稳步推进货币市场改革34参考文献36致 谢39