风险与保险原理第一章：Risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for. （风险这里指的是可能受到下行损失的概率，有三个特征）1. Risk not subjective - a state of the real world2. Risk can exist whether or not it is perceived3. Risk can be imagined where possibility of loss does not existUncertainty refers to a state of mind characterized by a lack of knowledge or doubt about the future. （不确定性指的是缺乏了解、怀疑未来的一种心理状态）The degree of risk ： 分为必然、不可能和可能事件Peril:the cause of loss （损失的原因）Hazard: a condition that creates or increases the chance of loss（导致损失概率变化的条件）Hazard 分为（ Physical 实质性的 Moral 道德上的 Morale 心理层次的 legal 法律上的） 第一层：风险的分类1。 Financial and non-financial （财务和非财务的）2。 Static and dynamic（ 静态和动态的）3。 Fundamental and particular （基本和特定的）4。 Pure and speculative （纯粹的和投机） 第二层： Pure and speculative（重点考察）1。 Speculative risks involve the possibility of loss or gain 。 They are voluntarily accepted because of the possibility of gain 。 （投机风险是自找的，有可能获利有可能损失,自愿接受）2。 Pure risks involve the possibility of loss or no loss only. （只可能损失）3。 In general， insurance deals with pure risks only. （保险只解决纯粹风险）第三层 :纯粹风险的分类1。 Personal risks （个人风险）2。 Property risks（财产风险）3。 Liability risks（ 责任风险， 是我国的新晋风险） 指的是现有资产或者未来收入损失的概率， 也就是因为有意或无意的损害或者对他人权利的侵犯而导致被估损失或者法律责任增加。4。 Risks arising out of failure of others （因他人失败而产生的信用风险） 第四层： （个人风险）Personal risks consist of the possibility of loss of income or assets as a result of the loss of the ability to earn income. （失去收入能力而引起收入或财产受损的风险）In general, earning power is subject to four perils:1. premature death, （早逝风险）2. dependent old age, （年老风险）3. sickness or disability（ 生病和残疾风险）4. Unemployment 。 （失业风险）第二章 :Risk management is a scientific approach to the problem of dealing with the pure risks facing individuals and organizations. 风险管理的定义：解决个人或者组织所面对纯粹风险的科学办 法，即预测风险，最小化损失.保险起源于corporate insurance buying（ 公司保险购买） ，如今风险管理包括decision theory ，risk financing, and risk control 。 （决策理论、风险融资、风险控制）风险管理工具（ Risk Management Tools）1 .Risk Control 风险控制：广义上包括减少组织所面临风险导致的损失Avoidance （规避）avoidance takes place when decisions are made that prevent a risk from even coming into existence.（即风险决策使得风险无法生成）Reduction （减少）define a broad set of efforts aimed at minimizing risk 。（致力于最小化风险的努力）2 .Risk Financing 风险融资（保证资金足够应对损失）guarantee the availability of funds to meet those losses that do occur.Retention （自留） ： exposures that are not avoided, reduced ， or transferred are retained 。（没有被规避，减少或者转移的风险成为自留风险）分为 Intentional / Unintentional（ 非/故意） ：通常是没有意识到风险的存在，往往都是不好的Voluntary / Involuntary Retention （非 /自愿）:一般是有办法解决风险,除非不可能规避减少转移Funded / Unfunded （非/筹资 ）Transfer （转移）通常用1。 Purchase of insurance 买保险2。 Hedging 对冲3。 Hold harmless agreements 免责协议4。 Subcontracting certain activities 分包5。 Surety bonds 保证书Risk sharing 风险分担（特殊的自留和转移）finance ， insurance and risk control 金融、保险、风险控制是风险管理的核心The Risk Management Process 风险管理的步骤1。 Determination of objectives 确定目标2。 Identification of risks 风险确认3。 Evaluation of risks 风险评估4。 Consideration of alternatives - selection of the tool 工具选择5。 Implementing the decision 决策实施6。 Evaluation and review 评估第三章insurance has two fundamental characteristics ：什么是保险1 .Transfer of risk from the individual to the group. 转移风险从个体到群体2。Sharing of losses on some equitable basis。平摊损失，分摊风险Individual Perspective 个人角度定义保险Use a small certain cost to cover a large uncertain financial loss. 用小成本覆盖大不确定损失The law of large numbers 大数定律（必考）作用：预测准确性；用大数定律去实践Social Perspective 社会角度定义保险Eliminate risk by combining a large number of homogeneous exposures to make the losses predictable。通过集成大数风险使得损失可预测来降低风险risk transfer emphasizes the individual s substitution of a small certain cost for large uncertain10ss.风险转移强调个人以小成本规避大风险pooling or risk sharing emphasizes the role of reducing risk in the aggregate 。风险分摊强调通过大数减少风险Elements of an Insurable Risk 可保风险的要素1。 Large numbers of exposure units 大量风险单位2。 Definite and measurable loss 损失可测量3。 The loss must be fortuitous 损失是偶然的4。 The loss must not be catastrophic 不能是巨灾的Classification of Private Insurance 私人保险的分类1. Life Insurance 寿险2. Accident and health Insurance 意外健康险3. Property and liability insurance 财产责任险第四章Minimax Regret Strategy最小化最大遗憾策略这个策略里不考虑概率，适用于不买保险时最坏结果难以被接受的情况Risk Characteristics as Determinants of Tool 风险管理工具决策模型HighFrequencyLowFrequencyHighSeverityAvoidReduceTransferLowSeverityReduceRetainRetain第五章Types of Company by Product保险公司的分类，依据产品1。 Life insurers 寿险2。 Property and Liability insurers 财产与责任险3。 Health and Accident insurers 健康意外险Distinction Between Agent and Broker 代理人和经纪人的区别Agent 代理人：an individual authorized by an insurer to create , modify , and terminate contracts of insuranceo （保险公司的代表，代理人帮助保险公司创造、修订和终止保险合约，有权暂时缔结风险合同，出现问题保险公司负责）Broker 经纪人： a representative of the insured who solicits business from insurance buyers but who is compensated by t