英文原文Multi-criteria selection of electric power plants using analytical hierarchy processAbstract This paper uses analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methodology to perform a comparison between the different electricity power production options in Jordan. The systems which were considered, in addition to fossil fuel power plants, are nuclear, solar,wind, and hydro-power. Results on cost to benefit ratios show that solar, wind, end hydro-power may be the best alternatives for electric power production. Nuclear electricity turns out to be the worst choice, followed by fossil fuel electric power. 1. Introduction Jordan is a non-oil producing Middle-Eastern country. It relies heavily on importing oil from neighboring countries. Most of the electric power that is generated to serve different sectors of the country is produced from power plants that use fossil fuel. This fuel is either totally imported such as petroleum hydrocarbon fuel, or partially local (only with small percentage) such as natural gas. The 1996 electrical energy consumption in Jordan reached a value of 6000 GWh. About 93% of his amount was produced by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) which is the main electricity supplier in the country 1. Other options or alternatives of energy sources for electric power generation must tee considered. These options may include nuclear, solar, wind, or hydro-electric energies. The Jordanian experience with electricity generation using solar and wind energy technology has been on the small and experimental scale. These renewable energy systems were utilized in mostly remote areas of Jordan. They are used to generate electric power for individual application such as clinics, lighting, and educational television sets. The remote village of Jurf Eldaraweesh located in the Jordan desert of a population of 600, is the best example 2. The necessary electrical energy is totally supplied by solar and wind energy conversion systems. In this paper, oil-fired power plants in addition to other alternatives are being evaluated. The other alternatives include nuclear, solar, wind and hydro-power. A brief description of various power plant technologies will be presented. Using a decision-support system through a multiple criteria analysis, such as AHP, an attempt will be made to assist decision makers to evaluate the use of the above technologies which can be most suitable for electrical power production in Jordan.2. Fossil-fuel electrical power plants In general, fossil fuels are non-renewable. They originate from the earth as a result of decomposition and chemical conversion of organic materials. They come in three organic forms: (1) solid, e.g. coal and oil shale; (2) liquid, e.g. most petroleum products, and (3) gas, e.g. natural gas. Coal represents the largest fossil-fuel energy resource in electric power generation 3,4. Oil shale is a fossil fuel that exists in Jordan in abundance, but with unattractive physical properties. First, like all oil shales, it has a low heating value due to the high ash content 5. Secondly, the Jordanian oil shale has sulfur contents, ranging 46% 6. Because of low prices of petroleum world wide the utilization of solid fossil fuels, such as oil shale, cannot be feasible at the time being. Therefore, oil shale power plants can not be considered to be competitive 3. Petroleum and natural gas are the main fuels used for the electric power generation in Jordan in addition to small hydro-powered electricity generation plants. Table 1 represents the existing electrical power plants in Jordan 1.3. Electricity power production using solar energy Since the 1970s solar energy has received the greatest attention of all renewable energy sources all over the world. Many regard it as the solution for cleaner environment and may be the alternative to fossil and nuclear fuels. Thus, solar energy has been the object for production of electrical power. Many studies and experiences have shown that solar thermal power plants are one of the most economic forms of solar electricity generation. Solar energy can be converted into electricity by photovoltaic cells, but this process is mostly convenient and suitable for small applications only. Stand alone photovoltaic power systems were proposed for electrification of remote areas of which they are located outside the electricity grid-connection supply system 7. On the other hand, solar energy can be converted into thermal energy by means of solar collectors or concentrators. A working fluid is used to convert the thermal energy into mechanical energy which is then converted into electricity. Unlike photovoltaics, large amounts of electrical power can be generated from such plants. The types of receivers that can be seriously considered are: (1) central receivers, (2) dispersed or distributed receivers and (3) solar ponds. Like most countries of the Middle East, Jordan enjoys long periods of sunshine. T