附 录附录A 外文文献原文MARKET FORECASTTHE ANALYSIS OF TENDENCYOF REFRIGERATED RAIL TRUCKDeng Xiaoju, You Wenli, Zhang Yingkui College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical TechnologyIn the logistic of food refrigerated supply chain, food refrigerated transport is the most important. The transport we say includes middle-distance transport, long-distance transport, short-distance. Since 1978, with the improvement of peoples living standard, the consumption of the perishable food has increased rapidly and the refrigerated rail transport has developed too .But compared with the developed countries, we should realize that we have a long way to go. 1. The problems in the development or the refrigerated rail truck and the gap between China and other developed countries. At present, in China the problems in the industry of the refrigerated rail truck: invest but not focus, construct repeatedly, produce but not focus and not big enough to obtain profit. Now in China there are about seventy full-time and part-time manufactories, most of which just use common ways to produce the refrigerated rail truck. Now also in China there are only seven or eight manufactories that have advanced equipment and technology. Each year they con provide l0.000 refrigerated rail trucks, but only 4 .000 trucks can be sold which results in investment cant be regained easily. The total number of the refrigerated rail trucks in China is about 30.000,but in the United States it is about 20.000. Though Chinas land is 20 times as large as that or Japan, in Japan the total number is about 10.000. Among vans, only 0.3% is refrigerated rail trucks in China. While in the United Slates is 1%. In Britain, 2.8%, and in France and Germany 2%-3% .In China, refrigerated transport rate is less than 20%, while in those developed countries such as the United States, Europe, Japan it is above 80%. Now in China a variety of refrigerated rail truck has increased and production technology has improved greatly. But in many aspects we still need improvement. For example, there are only about 100 varieties of refrigerated rail truck, which cant meet the need of the market. But in Japan in the early 70s there were about 350 varieties. 2. The analysis of tendency of refrigerated rail truck development in China. (1)Tendency of market demand. According to the statistics, in China the increased rate of production of the easily rotten food is above l0% per year. In the cities, there are about 50 million tons of the meat, the fowl and eggs and about 6 million tons of dairy products that are sold. With the increase of production and sale, and the improvement of refrigerated transport rate, the transport capacity of our refrigerated food will increase rapidly. From the analysis of the construction of refrigerated transport quantity, at present in China refrigerated rail transport is about 25%, refrigerated rail way transport is about 55%, and other transport is about 20%, while in the developed countries refrigerated rail transport is about 60%-80% . The Tenth Five-Year Plan of China has regarded the construction of freeways and high-class highways as the focus of the development of the communication and this will help to increase the percentage of the refrigerated rail transport and stimulate the increase of requirement for refrigerated rail truck. According to the prediction of the parties concerned by 2005, our refrigerated rail transport quantity will have reached 18 million tons. (2)Production structure and tendency of technology development. With the development of highway construction, heavy-duty truck will be the main tool of the long-distance refrigerated rail transport. And light-duty truck will be used to transport the perishable food. Now China attach much importance to saving energy and environment protection , and mechanical refrigeration is the main method in refrigeration technology, but the waste pollution and noise pollution is a little serious and the energy cant be used completely. Therefore, which the development of technology, the refrigerated rail truck, which uses new energy, will appear. In order to apply to the variety, and the requirement for reducing cost, the refrigerated rail truck will be certain to develop in the direction of small units, standardization and variety. (3)Tendency of reform in structure of refrigerated rail truck manufactory. In the logistics of the refrigerated supply chain, refrigerated rail truck is a production, which contains high technology. With the development of the market, keen competition will appear. A few specialized manufactories will gradually occupy the most of the market, because they have so many advantages, such as large scale, high technology, good quality, good service, timely supply and advanced management. Other manufactories so have a positive effect on the development of the industry, but they must have clear marke