中文3310字原 文:An analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in Brazil：challenges and recommendations 出 处： International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 作 者： Filipe Sobral,Alketa Peci,Gustavo Souza AbstractPurpose The main purpose of this study is to present an analysis of the dynamics of the tourism market in South America and, more specifically, in Brazil, by measuring and analyzing the growth in tourists arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002.Design/methodology/approach This study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the number of tourists into various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.Findings Despite the fact that Brazil is the leading tourist destination in South America, the study shows that Brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in South America. The study also revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentinas crises and the growing participation of the European tourist in Brazil.Originality/value Despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offering Brazilian policy-makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country.Keywords :Tourism, Public policy, Brazil, South AmericaIntroductionTourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy. Ever since the 1950s when international travel became accessible to the public in general, the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. Estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. The trends for the future of the tourism industry indicate that by 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (World Tourism Organization, 2006). According to World Travel and Tourism Council it is expected that the tourism will contribute 3.6 percent to global GDP in 2006 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). In view of the importance of the tourism sector, this study seeks to contribute with another potentially useful technical analysis tool for evaluating the sector. The objective is to provide policy makers in Brazil with a systematic approach towards managing their tourism efforts and activities. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for public policies in the area of tourism based on the discussion of results of the model integrated with the results of other studies and research.The tourism industry in South AmericaIn terms of economic impact, tourism is a recent phenomenon in South America. With the exception of the 1960-1970 decade, the growth of tourism on the American continent (North, Central and South America) was always below the world average(World Tourism Organization, 2005). Factors such as the great distance from the major tourist-generating markets, the timidity of the regional economies, as well as the prolonged economic recessions, had a negative impact on the development of regional and intra-regional tourism (Santana, 2000). Only in the 1990s South America emerged as a potential tourism destination, with Brazil, Argentina and Chile as the main players in the region. Factors like the transition to democracy, the consolidation of economic blocks, the growth of commerce with the major world markets and the improvement of basic public services, contributed positively to the development of tourism in the region. In conjunction with this the opening up of the markets and massive investments in infrastructure facilitated the flow of tourism to traditional and non-traditional destinations in South America(Gouvea, 2004; Santana, 2000).Even though the growth in the Americas has followed the worldwide trend, tourism has an unrealized growth potential in the majority of South American countries. Only recently some countries have adopted tourism as a strategic alternative. In accordance with projections of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) for 2006, it is expected that US$163,362 billion will be generated in economic activity (total demand)by the tourism industry. An impact of 7.2 percent on the GDP of Latin American countries is expected, as well as the generation of 12.1 million jobs, namely 6.9 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006).The tourism industry in BrazilWith respect to Brazil, it is possible to affirm that tourism is a relatively important economic activity, with great future growth potential. The contribution to GDP of the tourism industry in Brazil is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2006 (US$25.3 billion),increasing in nominal terms to US$ 36 billion (2.7 percent of GDP) by 2016 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). The importance of the tourism sector in Brazil becomes more ap