Chapter 9Chapter 9Fundamental AnalysisFundamental Analysis国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence.Do you know why traders carry a fundamental analysis?国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalySUPPLY AND DEMANDnAnything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices, and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices.国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyPrice0Price and SupplyssEEQD国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyPrice 0Price and DemandDDSEEQAs price goes up, consumption drops, and vice versa.国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyMARKET REPORTS The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides a number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily, weekly, and monthly price movements. 国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalySEASONALITY If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to-month basis, we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top, whereas during other months price tends to bottom. 国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyMonthly seasonal price tendency for corn国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyWeekly Corn Prices国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal.Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Prices国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyCYCLIC PRICE CHANGES The cyclic method of analysis and forecasting has its roots in the work of Edward R. Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. 国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly Upside ReversalDown side ReversalTiming Signals, Upside and Downside Reversals国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly Low-High Close High-Low CloseTiming Signals国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly “W” BOTTOM“M” TOPTiming Signals on Closing Basis Charts国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalySECULAR TRENDS 长期趋势 Less predictable than seasonal and cycles but significant nevertheless as an influence on prices are price trends resulting from long-term changes in supply and demand. 国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly The government is an ever-present but often fickle influence on commodity prices. Government Price Support Programs国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyPolitical Influences Political decisions anywhere in the world may affect commodity prices significantly.国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyMonthly Futures Copper Prices 国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyOTHER FORCES AND FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES News of war can lead to hoarding as well as to a greater demand for raw materials for defense and stockpiling. 国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly When the economy is healthy, un employment is low, the experts are predicting prosperous times ahead, and business is expanding, demand tends to be high for commodities. General Business Conditions国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) ,the Farm Price Index (FPI), the Dow Jones Averages, the Futures Price Indexes, the Reuters Spot Index.PRICE ANALYSIS国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) If these costs are rising, at the consumer level, it might indicate a rise in the inflation rate. The CPI is also called the cost-of-living index.国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalynWhat is the seasonal price pattern? nWhat is the long-term price trend?nWhat about government price supports?nExpert subsidies? nWhat are the figures on current production and carryover stocks? PRICE ANALYSIS国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnalyn Even the most sophisticated of systems will not be perfect. nThere will always be unexpected variables that the analysis failed to consider. nI have always maintained that the markets work perfectly as they respond to the multiplicity of forces that act upon them. Conclusion:国际期货市场运作9FundamentalAnaly