Tourism Demand and SupplyComponents of the Tourism MarketDemand or lack of it can be a problemhttp:/www.cartoonstock.com/directory/l/low_demand.aspFour Demand HypothesisExactly what tourism demand is and how it is created is still being argued. Basic Demand Hypotheses a) trade-off hypothesis （交易（交易/权衡假说）权衡假说）do I work more and make more money or work fewer hours and have less income but more free time for travel/recreation?as income increases the propensity to travel will increase at a faster rateit is clear here that resistance acts against propensity.工作越多赚钱越多，反之，工作越少挣钱越少，但是随着收入增多，旅游的愿望也随之增多。问题是： b) compensation hypothesis （补偿假说）（补偿假说）argues that leisure is the means by which people compensate for deficiencies （不足） in their work.休闲是为了弥补工作中不足的方式Basic Hypothesis, contc) spill-over hypothesis （溢出假说）（溢出假说）similar to compensation in that there is a recognition of the importance of work and that it affects non-work activities.argues that there is not a contrast between work and leisure, but rather a complementary relationship. That is, a “worker” has a tendency to transfer work related structures to leisure (in professions but perhaps not industry). 认为工作与休闲是一种互补的关系d) neutralist hypothesis （中立假设）（中立假设）argues that the work/leisure relationship is not important. What a person does is reflected more by individual needs and drives than work. Think of Maslows Hierarchy here (http:/honolulu.hawaii.edu/intranet/committees/FacDevCom/guidebk/teachtip/maslow.htm).工作与休闲没有重要的关联，更多的还是受到个人的需求所驱动Supply and DemandIn this simplest form, demand is expressed mathematically asDemand = (Propensity 倾向倾向, resistance 阻力排斥阻力排斥)Propensity Depends On:Psychographics （消费心态）（消费心态）Demographics (socioeconomic status)Marketing effectivenessResistance Depends on:Economic distanceCultural distanceCost of tourist servicesQuality of serviceSeasonalitySix Variables of DemandAvailable leisure timeIncomeEducationMobility Household attributes (demographics, sex, age, marital status, household size and structure,)Psychological factors, behaviour, motivation, perceptions etc.Demand Variables, another approachEconomic Distance relates to the time and cost involved in travelling from TGR to TDR and back, The higher the economic distance the higher the resistance to travel to that destination,Cultural Distance relates to the difference in cultures between the two destinations. The cultural distance between Canada and the UK is not as great as the cultural distance between Canada and China. It can be a resistance factor for some and the opposite for those travellers that are looking for something truly different,http:/www.bahamastourismchannel.com/images/abcde.gifDemand Variables, contCost of Services basically price vs demand, the higher the costs at the destination the lower will be the demand,Quality of Service a very hard one to evaluate and is very personal,Seasonality certain seasons are more attractive than others.Measuring of DemandVisitor arrivals Note: that Saint John County attractions include Barbours General Store, Carleton Martello Tower National Historical Site, Cherry Brook Zoo, Fundy Trail Parkway, Irving Nature Park, New Brunswick Museum, Quaco Museum (St. Martins), Reversing Falls, Saint John Firefighters Museum, and the Saint John Jewish Historical Museum Saint John County Visitation Summer QuarterMayJuneJulyAugustSeptOctSeasonal Total20053610358246925796168261221406043504352006409524825484319810735027944197349074SupplyTourism Supply - the natural and human made features, which provide or could reasonably be expected to provide, in the future, opportunities for tourism (adapted from Phillips 1970, in Wall, Outdoor Recreation in Canada, 1982).Supply VariablesTypes of facilities, activities that can be undertaken, ownership (public or private), and location - urban, rural, user oriented, resource oriented intermediates.Number of facilities, measure of quantityQuality, suitability for activity when compared with other facilitiesCapacity - physical (site size a casino has a limit space), environmental (impact on natural and cultural environment), ancillary (roads, railway, airports, how much can they take the average road in NZ for example can handle no more than 2000 vehicles and hour. Supply Variables, contAccessibility, distance, transportation, time, priceClimate and weather.Supply Variables, another approachNatural resources and environment climate, and landscapes, plants and animals, water and beaches, beauty of the region, health related factors (water, air pollution, etc.),Build environment - cultural features of the environment, from water and sewage lines (infrastructure) to built facilities such as airports, railroads, (superstructure) also includes destination monuments, Eiffel Tower, Temple of Heaven, etcOperating Sectors the tourism industrySpirit of hospitality and cultural resources consists of cultural elements, language, customs, religion. It also refers to courtesy, friendliness, sincere interest, willingness to serve (but not be servile), and much more.ConclusionSupply and demand are a complex concept but according to many researchers lie at the heart of understanding the behaviourof the recreation and tourism industry. You will learn more about these concepts and how they effectthe management of the tourism industry as you move throughthis course. Below is a slide series we will not go into in class that presents the idea of supply and demand that may help you understand this complex idea a little better. If you have any questions about it let me know.DEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayTourist ImageSUPPLYAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureTourism ProductExperienceCapitalResourcesMarket Place Intermediaries(After Murphy 1985)SUPPLYDEMANDSUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsSUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsSUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasySUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPhysicalThe first motivator is physical or physiological, such as relaxation, quality of food, drink, etc.SUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPhysicalThe first motivator is physical or physiological, such as relaxation, quality of food, drink, etc.CulturalThe second motivator is cultural,desire, curiosity, learning aboutother countries and peoples.SUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPhysicalThe first motivator is physical or physiological, such as relaxation, quality of food, drink, etc.CulturalThe second motivator is cultural,desire, curiosity, learning aboutother countries and peoples.SocialSocial motivators include VFR, meetings, prestige factors.SUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPhysicalThe first motivator is physical or physiological, such as relaxation, quality of food, drink, etc.CulturalThe second motivator is cultural,desire, curiosity, learning aboutother countries and peoples.SocialSocial motivators include VFR, meetings, prestige factors.To wish to do something different,transcend everyday monotony or partake of fantasy holidays, gamblingsexual adventure for example.FantasySUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayPreferenceReflects the individuals personality, a personality that has been built up overa life time of socialization and culturalimmersion.Past ExperienceOne satisfactory experience leads to choiceof similar activities or ones slightly more adventurous.HearsayThe all important word-of-mouth, talkingto friends, relatives, travel agents or evenstrangers.SUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayTourist ImageSUPPLYDEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayTourist ImageThe tourist image is a mix of motivation and perceptions. “This image may be defined as the sum of beliefs, ideas, and impressions that aperson has regarding the destination(Murphy, 1985, 11).SUPPLYDEMANDResourcesSUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalSUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceSUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions HospitalitySUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions HospitalityAttractionsNatures endowment and/or societysheritage. (after Murphy 1985, pp.12)SUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions HospitalityAttractionsNatures endowment and/or societysheritage. (after Murphy 1985, pp.12)HospitalityMany suggest that tourism cannot survivewithout the good will of the host culture. It can also be argued however, at least in the short term the attraction can survive by isolating itself from the local people, as longas there is a political “will” by politicalforces which “control” the people, e.g. Indonesia or Burma.Hospitality of the tourism workers is of course required.SUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureSUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureFacilitiesBeyond the “core” attractions there may develop support facilities and artificial attractions to fill out the “product basket”The addition of an aquarium to a coastalcitys market mix might help, as it does inNapier, New Zealand.SUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureAccessibility - InfrastructureThese two can be discussed together, theyare those elements that allow access to theattraction and make it comfortable and safe, safe for the attraction, visitors and host community. Such things as sewerage, water, roads, airports, facilities for the handicapped,seniors etc. are all part of these essentialelements. Remember all this requires money from someone . . .SUPPLYDEMANDResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureTourism ProductDEMANDSUPPLYResourcesCapitalExperienceAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureTourism ProductTourism ProductThe tourism product is an amalgam of resources and capital that is presented to public for purchase. DEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayTourist ImageSUPPLYAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureTourism ProductExperienceCapitalResourcesWhats Missing?DEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayTourist ImageSUPPLYAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureTourism ProductExperienceCapitalResourcesMarket Place IntermediariesMarket Place IntermediariesAny industry must sell its product and since, in tourism the product is immobile, that is it cannot come to the customer some form of intermediary is sometimes required. Who are these intermediaries? Travel Agents Direct Selling WholesalerHow you sell your product depends on where you are in the system, are you a producer, wholesaler, consolidator, travel agent, etc.The system provide by Murphy is just one example of how supply and demandin tourism is treated, you should be able to compare his system with othersincluding Ryan and Burns and Holden.DEMANDMotivationsPerceptionsExpectationsPhysical Cultural Social FantasyPast Experience-Preference-HearsayTourist ImageSUPPLYAttractions Hospitality Facilities-Accessibility-InfrastructureTourism ProductExperienceCapitalResourcesMarket Place Intermediaries(After Murphy 1985)