Washington State University-20101FundamentalExamReviewTOCThinkingProcessesSegmentTheTheoryofConstraintsjholtwsu.eduhttp:/www.engrmgt.wsu.edu/JamesR.Holt,Ph.D.,PEProfessorEngineering&TechnologyManagementDisclaimer: The material in these slides were developed over time and represents Dr. Holts personal views and approach to TOC. It is not the view of Washington State University nor TOCICO. It may be dated, incomplete or absolutely wrong. While the text and figures in this presentation are helpful to facilitate teaching and discussion of these topics, without the words that go with the slides, the presentation is not complete and may not even make sense. This material is made available in the public domain as a service. Individuals may use this material as resources to teach their own TOC review seminars as long as they give reference to the source. There is no promise nor expectation that these materials are either necessary or sufficient to pass any of the TOCICO certification exams. Anyone using these materials should continue to study from the many other sources of excellent TOC literature available. In many cases, common knowledge is included here without reference. If you would like to improve any of these files, please do so. Your contribution will be included in future postings. Dr Holt. Washington State University-20102TOCICOSegmentedFundamentalsExamFundamentalsCertificateMultipleChoiceExam(Identify,Exploit,Subordinate,Elevate,GotoStep1)Fundamentals Certificate of TOC PhilosophyFundamentals Certificate of TOC Thinking ProcessesFundamentalsCertificate of TOC ApplicationsFundamentals Certificate of TOC Finance & MeasuresInherent PotentialInherent SimplicityInherent Win-WinFive Focusing StepsThree QuestionsConflict CloudNegative BranchAmbitious TargetDBRT, I, OEPQ Type ProblemProject ManagementReplenishment Washington State University-20103TopicsinTOCThinkingProcessCauseandEffectEvaporatingCloudSurfacingAssumptionsInvalidatingAssumptionsNegativeBranchReservationOvercomingObstacles(PRT)CategoriesofLegitimateReservationLayersofResistance Washington State University-20104TOCThinkingProcessElementsTwotypesofLogic(inNaturalLanguage)If,Then.Inorderto,Theremustbe.LogicalCausalityToolsusedtoAnswerthethreequestions:WhattoChange?WhattoChangeto?HowtoCausetheChange?TOCisaSystemicThinkingProcess.Thereareasetofrulestoguideandcheckvalidity.Couldbecalled“VisualThinking”.Sufficiency LogicNecessary Logic Washington State University-20105EveryoneCanThinkGoal:LowertheBallyetkeepitattached.Minimize:Ysubjectto:(X-1)2+(Y-8)2=24(X-3)2+(Y-8)2=14(X-5)2+(Y-8)2=2(X-7)2+(Y-8)2=22(X-9)2+(Y-8)2Y- Washington State University-20106TheRealWorldMyViewofmyWorld Washington State University-20107ThinkingTimeWeallthink!Itswhatwedo!OurmindsarelikeCPUs.TheykeeponrunningandrunningandrunningWefeeluncomfortableifwedonthavethoughtsinourhead.ThatswhyjunkTVstillsurvives.WefeeluncomfortableifwestartthinkingthewrongthoughtsThatswhytherearemagazinesinDoctorsoffices! Washington State University-20108ThinkingExperimentGetoutapencilandpaper.Waitforthestartingsignal.Then,WorkreallyhardatnotthinkingforOneMinute!GO! Washington State University-20109QUICK!Writedowneverythoughtyouhadinthelastminute!JotdownawordtocatchthethoughtyouhadCaptureasmanyaspossible. Washington State University-201010HowManyThoughtsdidyouhavein1Minute?0 3 6 9 12 15 18Howmanyofthosethoughtshaveyouhadbefore?40%,60%,80%?Probable #Number of thoughtsIntheproductionworld,wewouldcallrecurringthoughtsRE-WORK! Washington State University-201011ImprovingourMentalThroughputWeneedtoincreaseourmentaleffectivenessWeneedtotietogetherthestraypiecessowedonthavetodealwithindividualthoughtsWeneedtogetthewholepicture,solveit,andmoveon. Washington State University-201012Whatisthis? Washington State University-201013JonathansFamily Washington State University-201014ThinkingProcessToolsTheBasicSetofThinkingProcessToolsInclude:CurrentRealityTreeEvaporatingCloudFutureRealityTreeNegativeBranchReservationPre-RequisiteTreeTransitionTreeDerivativesTools:ThreeCloudApproachChronicConflictLayersofResistanceAll of these tools are Scrutinized by the Categories of Legitimate Reservation.Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201015ForFun!InordertounderstandthefunctionandpoweroftheThinkingProcessToolsLetsexamineaThinkingProcessExample.OnethatisfairlywellknownbymostpeopleOnethatisnotwellsolvedbymostpeopleMaritalStrife Washington State University-201016FirsttheApproach:TheThinkingProcessWhattoChange?FindthecauseoftheUnDesirableEffects-UDEs.Change(Remove)theCoreProblem.UDEsUDEsUDEsUDEsUDEsUDEsUDEsUDEsCoreProblemArrows are Logical Connections are Tail Head: “If , Then .” Washington State University-201017FindWhatsBlockingtheSolutionInjectionthatinvalidatestheassumptionGoalNecessaryConditionNecessaryConditionPrerequisitePrerequisiteWhattoChangeTo?Assumptionsthatexplainthenecessaryconnection.Arrows are Logical Connections are Head Tail: “In Order to , Must have .”Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201018HowtoCausetheChange?DEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEKeyActionKeyActionKeyActionAchievingtheSolution Washington State University-201019MaritalStrifeUnDesirableEffectsLackofAffectionLackofTrustOneCarriesExcessiveLoadUnequalWorkloadInfidelityFrequentDisagreementsLittleSupportLackofCompassionDifferenceofOpinion Washington State University-201020Story-Trust1.MyspousedoesntcomehomewhenIexpecthim(her).Thisishappeningmoreandmore.Thestoriesseemtobeweakerandweaker.Iwanttotrustmyspouse.ButIdontwanttobehurt.IfeelgoodaboutmymarriageMyspousefeelsfreefrommybondageIdontgethurtItrustmyspouseatalltimesIdonttrustmyspouseThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201021Story-Support2.Myspouseisdeeplyinvolvedin_.He/sheexpectsmetosupporthim/herbytakingcareof_whilehe/sheisgone.Idontminddoingit,butitleavesmelittletimeformyownhobbies.WeuseourtimewellMyspousecandohis/herownthingIhavetimeformyselfGivelotsofsupportGivelittlesupportThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201022Story-Workload3.Myspouseisinastressfuljobandatacriticalpointinhis/hercareer.Itseemslikethis“criticalpoint”isgettinglongerandlonger.Inthemeantime,Ihavetodomyjobandholddownthedomesticdutiestoo!We both AchieveI survive my JobMy spouse gets aheadWe balance our domestic workloadWe have unequal workloadThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201023GenericConflict(aconsolidatedEvaporatingCloud)HappyMarriageMySpouseisHappyIamHappyMyspousedoeswhathe/shewantsMyspousedoesntgetwhathe/shewants1.FeelGood2.UseTimeEffective3.Achieve1.Spousefreedom2.Spousedoesownthing3.Spousegetsahead1.Imnothurt2.Timeforme3.ISurvive1.Trust2.Support3.Unequalwork1.LackofTrust2.LackofSupport3.BalancedworkThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201024CoreConflictWewantaHappyMarriageMySpouseneedstobehappyIneedtobehappyThereispressuretogivemyspousedoeswhathe/shewantsThereispressurenottogivewhathe/shewantsMypersonalfeelingsareimportantInothappyunlessmyspouseishappyIhaverealneedsThethingsmyspousewantsareimportanttoourmarriageOurwantsaredifferentWehavedifferentgoalsIamoftenslightedOften,myspousetakessecondplaceCore ProblemWhat to Change? Washington State University-201025TheCurrentRealityTreeResultsoftheCoreConflictWehavedifferentgoalsExcessiveburdensDifferentOpinionsFrequentargumentsLossoftrustLackofsupportLackofAffectionInfidelityLackofCompassionUnequalworkloadThingsneedtobedoneDifferentpeoplehavedifferentlevelsofimportanceTimecontinues Washington State University-201026APotentialFutureDesiraleEffects(DEs)WehaveacloserelationshipWehavecompleteconfidenceWeshareourburdensWesharetheworkloadCommittedtoeachotherWerarelydisagreeonimportantmattersWesupporteachotherCaringRelationshipWereallyunderstandeachother Washington State University-201027StartingInjectionMyspouseandIsharecommongoals,objectivesanddirectionintheimportantaspectsofourlives. Washington State University-201028StartoftheFutureWewantaHappyMarriageMySpouseneedstobeHappyIneedtobeHappyMypersonalfeelingsareimportantInothappyunlessmyspouseishappyWehavecommongoals,objectivesanddirectionintheimportantaspectsofourlives.MyspouseworkstowardsspousesgoalsIworktowardmygoalsSpouseisworkingtoourcommongoalsImworkingtoourcommongoalsWeareworkingtowardsourcommongoals/direction Washington State University-201029MoreActionsNeededWeareworkingtowardsourcommongoals/directionWehavecompleteconfidenceWehaveacloserelationshipWeshareourburdensWerarelydisagreeWereallyunderstandeachotherWehaveaCaringRelationshipWesupporteachotherWesharetheworkload? Washington State University-201030APossibleNiceFutureRealityTreeWeareworkingtowardsourcommongoals/directionWehavecompleteconfidenceineachotherWehaveacloserelationshipWeshareourburdensWerarelydisagreeWereallyunderstandeachotherWehavegoodcommunicationCaringRelationshipWesupporteachotherWesharetheworkloadWerealizeweneedeachothertoreachourcommongoalsWemakeitapointtocommunicate(good&bad)WeshareacommonsetofmoralvirtuesWhat to Change to?TheBadSideTheGoodSideNegativeBranchReservation Washington State University-201031Wehavecommongoals,objectivesanddirectionintheimportantaspectsofourlives.ImworkingtoourcommongoalsMyspouseworkstowardsspousesgoalsMyspousesgoalsareachieved.MostofmyspousesgoalsareourcommongoalsIamverybusyMygoalstakealotoftimeImnotworkingonmygoalsIcantachievemygoalsThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals ExamNegativeBranchReservation Washington State University-201032ImworkingtoourcommongoalsMyspouseworkstowardsspousesgoalsMyspousesgoalsareachieved.MostofmyspousesgoalsareourcommongoalsIamverybusyMygoalstakealotoftimeImnotworkingonmygoalsIcantachievemygoalsTheGoodSideTheBadSideIworkonthingsIvalueIworkonourgoalsANDmygoalsIfeelgoodaboutmyprogressIfinallyprioritizemylifeWehavecommongoals,objectivesanddirectionintheimportantaspectsofourlives.Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201033OK,Injections,ButHOW?HowtoCausetheChange?Wehavecommongoals,objectivesanddirectionintheimportantaspectsofourlives.MyspouseworkstowardsspousesgoalsIworktowardmygoalsWerealizeweneedeachothertoreachourcommongoalsWemakeitapointtocommunicate(good&bad)WeshareacommonsetofmoralvirtuesCreate the PreRequisite Tree (Ambitious Target Tree).Practice on this InjectionIfinallyprioritizemylife Washington State University-2010WeshareacommonsetofmoralvirtuesObstacles PreventingIntermediate ObjectivesIts a gray world out there. (I cant tell right from wrong)We dont want to change.Values change according to the circumstances.We have different backgrounds.Our desires differ.We both enjoy some moral indiscretions.Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam34 Washington State University-201035WeshareacommonsetofmoralvirtuesObstacles PreventingIntermediate ObjectivesWe agree on common virtuesWe are willing to work on thisWe agree on a common virtuesWe really know each otherWe share a set of common goalsWe live our set of virtues in all casesIts a gray world (cant tell right from wrong)We dont want to changeValues change according to the circumstancesWe have different backgroundsOur desires differWe both enjoy some moral indiscretionsThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201036Sequencingthesolution(StructureofthePRT)WerecognizeourownfrailtiesWedontwanttoadmiterrorWereallycommunicateWesubordinateourselvestoeachotherWereallyknoweachotherWeshareasetofcommongoalsWeagreeonacommonvirtuesWeliveoursetofvirtuesinallcasesWeshareacommonsetofmoralvirtuesOurdesiresdifferItshardtotellrightfromwrongWeenjoyourindiscretionsWedonttalkmuchWearedifferentWedontknoweachotherThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201037PuttingtheIntermediateObjectivesIntoPlaceThePreRequisiteTreeexposedtheIntermediateObjectives(Milestones)neededfor“HowtoCausetheChange?”But,HowtoWeactuallyGetthere?Howwill,WeReallyCommunicate?Forthis,theTransitionTreegivestheStep-by-StepApproachtogettingthere.WerecognizeourownfrailtiesWedontwanttoadmiterrorWereallycommunicateWesubordinateourselvestoeachotherWedonttalkmuch Washington State University-201038WorkingUpwardsonaTransitionTreeWerecognizeourownfrailtiesWedontwanttoadmiterrorWereallycommunicateWesubordinateourselvestoeachotherWedonttalkmuchWe recognize (more and more of) our own frailtiesPeople rarely respect people who make a lot of mistakesWe want others to respect usWe are mortalThere are (and should be) few secrets between spousesWe, each of us, try to hide our mistakesSpouses can be a significant help and support for dealing with problemsMistakes are inevitableWe generally know about each others mistakes that we try to hideWe want to improveWe, each, admit (confidentially) to some of our problems that we wish to eliminate Washington State University-201039WorkingUpwardsonaTransitionTreeWerecognizeourownfrailtiesWedontwanttoadmiterrorWereallycommunicateWesubordinateourselvestoeachotherWedonttalkmuchWe subordinate ourselves (more and more) to each otherWe desire to love each other even more than we do nowWe Loved each other in the pastWe both have made some mistakesWe are willing to do some things that show love to our spouseWe need to resolve some problems on both sidesReal love comes from sacrificing self for the benefit of others.Our marriage has some strife caused by each of us.We need cooperation (give and and take) from both sidesWe want to improveWe, each, accept we will do more things for each other than we are currently doingMistakes are inevitableIt is easier to love when loved. Washington State University-201040WorkingUpwardsonaTransitionTreeWerecognizeourownfrailtiesWedontwanttoadmiterrorWereallycommunicateWesubordinateourselvestoeachotherWedonttalkmuchWe recognize more and more) of our own frailtiesWe talk frequently about our successes togetherWe talk frequently about our challengesWe dedicate time to spend with each otherNeither of us dominates the discussion (for too long)We both have topics of interest to each otherWe dont talk muchWe really communicate (more and more)We subordinate ourselves (more and more) to each otherWe want to improveWe need to talk moreWe each mention three good things that are happening in our lives We each mention three problems that we want to improve.We are very patient and listen without judgment. Washington State University-201041WorkingUpwardsonaTransitionTreeWerecognizeourownfrailtiesWedontwanttoadmiterrorWereallycommunicateWesubordinateourselvestoeachotherWedonttalkmuchWe dedicate time to spend with each otherWe really communicate (more and more)We each mention three good things that are happening in our lives We each mention three problems that we want to improve.We, each, admit (confidentially) to some of our problems that we wish to eliminateWe are very patient and listen without judgment. Washington State University-201042TheStrategic/TacticPlanforMarriageS.MaritalBlissT.LoveEachOtherS.GetAlongT.AcceptEachOtherS.FocusontheOtherT.HaveCommonGoalsS.TrustEachOtherT.ShareMoralCodeS.SpouseLovesMeT.TakeActionstocauseSpousetolovemeCommunicationWorkatMarriageForgivenessFidelitySharedResponsibility Washington State University-201043TheEvaporatingCloudA.TheGoalB.MyNeedC.OthersNeedD.WhatIWantD.WhattheOthersWantThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201044CreatingtheEvaporatingCloudD.WhatIWant1. What is it that I Want (that Im having trouble getting)? Washington State University-201045CreatingtheEvaporatingCloudD.WhatIWantD.WhattheOthersWant1. What is it that I Want (that Im having trouble getting)?2. What is it that the Others Want (that I dont want them to have)? Washington State University-201046CreatingtheEvaporatingCloudB.MyNeedD.WhatIWantD.WhattheOthersWant1. What is it that I Want (that Im having trouble getting)?2. What is it that the Others Want (that I dont want them to have)?3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill? Washington State University-201047CreatingtheEvaporatingCloudB.MyNeedC.OthersNeedD.WhatIWantD.WhattheOthersWant1. What is it that I Want (that Im having trouble getting)?2. What is it that the Others Want (that I dont want them to have)?3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill?4. Why do the Others want what they want? What Need do they have? Washington State University-201048CreatingtheEvaporatingCloudA.TheGoalB.MyNeedC.OthersNeedD.WhatIWantD.WhattheOthersWant1. What is it that I Want (that Im having trouble getting)?2. What is it that the Others Want (that I dont want them to have)?3. Why do I want what I want? What Need am I trying to fulfill?4. Why do the Others want what they want? What Need do they have?5. What Goal do we mutually share? Why are we still arguing?Reading the Cloud:In order to I must have . Washington State University-201049CommunicatingtheEvaporatingCloudA.TheGoalB.MyNeedC.OthersNeedD.WhatIWantD.WhattheOthersWant5. And you WANT to meet your Need as well.3. Acknowledge the Other side Wants to act on meeting their Need.4. Point out that you also have a significant Need.2. Recognize you understand the Others Need must be meet to reach the Goal. 1. Start the Mutual Goal. It is common ground. Both interested.Reading the Cloud:In order to I must have . Washington State University-201050LetsDoSomeExamplesA.TheGoalB.WhyIWantItC.WhytheOtherSideWantsWhatTheyWantD.WhatIWant(todo)D.WhattheOtherSideWantsThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam Washington State University-201051LetsDoSomeExamplesA.GettheCustomerorderB.MaketheofferattractivetothecustomerC.InsurethequalityoftheproductD.SuppliermakesthemoldD.CustomermakestheMoldThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals ExamSTUDENT EXAMPLE Washington State University-201052LetsDoSomeExamplesA.MakemoreProfitB.MotivatebetterPerformanceC.ControlExpensesD.PayHighSalariesD.DontpayHighSalariesThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals ExamBecause:MotivatedemployeesdelivermoreprofitBecause:MoneyistheONLYmotivatorBecause:ExpensessubtractfromprofitBecause:SalariesareasignificantpartofexpensesBecause:Thiswillcreateconflictwiththeteam.Salariesarefixed.STUDENT EXAMPLE Washington State University-201053EvaporatingtheEvaporatingCloudA.ManageProductionEffectivelyB.ProduceaLotC.KeepCostsandDeliveryinControlD.IncreasetheWork-In-ProcessD.DecreasetheWork-In-ProcessAssumption: We are measured upon our Production LevelAssumption: All machines must be keep busy all the time.Assumption: We cant increase WIP and Decrease WIP at the same time.Assumption: WIP is expensive. High WIP delays flow time.Assumption: Our profits are not high. Customers demand on-time delivery. Washington State University-201054ThereisanInjectionforEveryConflictArrowAssumptionInjectionABProductiveDeliverMaxCapacityACCostEffectivePriceonValueBDBusyMachines KeepConstraint100%CDExpensiveWIP ThroughputFocusD/D CantdoBothBufferConstraintonlyChosen Injection:Focus on the Capacity Constrained Resource. Release work to the system at the rate of the Capacity Constrained Resource a Buffer Time in Advance (no sooner, no later).Use Buffer Management to improve the system. Washington State University-201055SometimesTOCSolutionsAreCounterIntuitiveDBR:Togetmoreout,putlessin.CCPM:Tofinishprojectsooner,delaytheStart.CCPM:Tobesafer,removethesafety.Replenishment:Togetyourproductsquickertothecustomer,storethemfartheraway.ToSolvetheConflict,Ignoretheconflict.ToMakeMoreMoney,SellatbelowCost.If you cant find an injection, then just do what is opposite of what everyone else is doing (and then do whatever it takes to make it work).NegativeBranchReservationPracticeStoryLine.IjusthadanexposuretotheNegativeBranchReservationTooloftheTOCThinkingProcess.Icanrememberpartsofit(theGoodSide,theBadSidepartsticksout).TheclassinstructornowtellsustomakeaNegativeBranchReservationsasaninclassquiz.Assignment.DrawtheNegativeBranchReservationandtheresultsofthetrimmingInjection. Washington State University-201056Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals ExamTheBadSideTheGoodSideNegativeBranchReservation Washington State University-201057IdrawaNBRTreeThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam.TheBadSideTheGoodSideNegativeBranchReservation Washington State University-201058IdrawaNBRTreeThinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals ExamI learn better how to do the NBRIm not too good at the NBRI might be called to presentI Could look bad.My NBR tree may not look goodPracticeGet Help from Each otherTwo idiots are better than oneWe might learn from Each otherI will look good!We might Miss it.I Wont be alonePreRequisiteTreePracticeTheAMBITIOUSTARGET:ToLearntheEvaporatingCloud,theNegativeBranchReservationandPRT(AmbitiousTarget)Treeinthenexthalfhour.WhataretheObstacles?WhataretheInjections? Washington State University-201059 Washington State University-2010LearnEC,NBR,PRTin30MinsObstacles PreventingIntermediate Objectives.Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam60 Washington State University-2010LearnEC,NBR,PRTin30MinsObstacles PreventingIntermediate ObjectivesWearepreoccupied.Wearesleepy(afterlunch)ToomanycallsDetailsunknowntousNotenoughtimeNowritingmaterialsNotwillingtoacceptlearningNotmotivated.Difficult,complex,hardFullTimeCallConcentrationCoffeeSwitchoff(nodistractions)WeKnowtheDetailsPlentyoftimeWriteonWhiteBoardWepaidforthisclass!IreallywanttodothisWiththerightmaterials,thisiseasy!Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals Exam61 Washington State University-201062Sequencingthesolution(StructureofthePRT).IlearntheEC,NBR,PRTin30Mins.Thinking Process elements included in the Fundamentals ExamCategoriesofLegitimateReservationUsedtoScrutinizeAllLogicTreesFirst:ClaritySecond:EntityExistenceCausalityThirdCauseInsufficiencyAdditionalCauseCauseReversalPredictedEffectTautologyThe CauseThe CauseThe EffectThe EffectThis simple set of rules, which compiles all the key elements necessary This simple set of rules, which compiles all the key elements necessary and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic, is one of Eliyhau M. and sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic, is one of Eliyhau M. Goldratts significant contribution to thinking.Goldratts significant contribution to thinking.63 Washington State University-2010ResistancetoChangeWhydontPeopleChange?Resistancetochangeisagoodthing.Itpreventsmostun-neededchanges.Peopleresistbecausetheydontunderstandthevalueofthechangeand/orseesignificantnegativebrancheswithoutawaytodealwiththem.Therearesixbasiclayersofresistanceandsixmethodstoovercomethem. Washington State University-201064LayersofResistanceLayer1.DisagreeontheproblemSolution:Agreeontheproblem(CRT)Layer2.DisagreeonthedirectionofthesolutionSolution:Agreeonthedirectionofthesolution(EC)Layer3.Disagreethatthesolutionsolvestheproblem.Solution:Agreethatthesolutionsolvestheproblem(FRT)Layer4.Yes,But,therearepotentialNegativeconsequences.Solution:Agreethatthesolutionwillnotleadtoanysignificantnegativeeffects(NBR)Layer5.Yes.But,thereareobstaclestoimplementingthesolution.Solution:Agreeonthewaytoovercomeanyobstaclesthatmightblockordistortimplementationofthesolution(PRT)Layer6.UnverbalizedfearsSolution:OvercomeUnverbalizedfears(TT) Washington State University-201065CategoriesofLegitimateReservation:CLRClarityA School only for Pretty Girls? Or, is it a Pretty School for young girls? Or, just a very Little School? Could it be a school for one particularly Pretty Girl (you missed the apostrophe)? Are there boys there too? Does the building look particularly nice? What is the enrollment?This is a pretty little girls schoolThis is a small school for girlsExpressing logic visually gives the opportunity for scrutiny often missed when voiced only.66 Washington State University-2010CLREntityExistenceEntity Existence Reservation: “Do these things really exist in your world?”Operating costs of the car are of little concernThere is free maintenance for 100,000 milesThe exterior appearance of the car doesnt matterA brand new Lexus costs $15,00067 Washington State University-2010CLRCausalityCausality: Show me how the parts in the Effect (at the point of the arrow) come from the Cause (from the tail).I open a Savings AccountI receive 20% interestI want to be differentI need pants like JoesMy roommate has a carI need a carI buy stockI become a millionaireThere are problems with each one.The CauseThe Effect68 Washington State University-2010CLRCauseInsufficiencyInsufficiency Reservation: Your Group needs to complete a good Group Project too.I get excellent grades in ClassMy Project goes wellI turn-in good homeworkMy Group Project goes wellInsufficiency Reservation: You Need to do your Project well.69 Washington State University-2010CLR(MoreonInsufficiency)Is it sufficient?Not without the Triangle!70 Washington State University-2010CLRAdditionalCauseI dont get good Gas MileageMy Truck is largeAdditional Cause Reservation:I carry heavy loadsAdditional Cause Reservation:I drive too fastAh-Ha! We see an Ah-Ha! We see an area were area were improvement is improvement is possible.possible.71 Washington State University-2010CLRCauseReversalMy Garage is full of stuff.My Garage is too small.The Garage didnt The Garage didnt create all the extra create all the extra things.things.My Garage is full of stuffMy Garage is too small.I cant get my car in the Garage.72 Washington State University-2010CLRPredictedEffectOur Incomeis too low We dont have enoughmoney to pay ourbillsPredicted Effect Reservation: If our income is too low, I would expect to see most people with the same income unable to pay their bills. Others with the same income would not be able to pay their bills Many others with same or less income do pay their bills And yet, I see lots of people with the same or less income paying their bills just fine.We buy too many things we really dont need Discovery Happens!We have too many billsThe Most Difficult CLR to use (you have to think).73 Washington State University-201010. There is a Chicken20. There is an EggToo Tight a Logic LoopCLR-TautologyReservationATooTightaLogicalLoopATooTightaLogicalLoopA Longer Logical LoopResolves the Age Old Question20. There is a fertile Egg16. There is a Female Chicken14. There is a Male ChickenOR11. A Male and Female Chicken can produce a fertile EggBut, maybe there were two eggs first!Most Frequent Logical Error!74 Washington State University-2010CLRTautologyTheCauseistheExcuseTheCauseistheExcuse The Circular Logic The Circular Logic of the of the CauseCause is is accepted accepted becausebecause of the of the EffectEffect. . “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?” “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?” “ “BecauseBecause, they lost the game didnt they!”, they lost the game didnt they!”The Beavers lost the gameThe Beavers are a lousy team. Whenever you hear, a Whenever you hear, a BECAUSEBECAUSE, , that is the that is the samesame as the as the EffectEffect you have you have a Tautology (bad logic).a Tautology (bad logic).The CauseThe CauseThe EffectThe EffectMost Frequent Logical Error!75 Washington State University-2010CLRTautology“TheCauseisHardtoDefine”“TheCauseisHardtoDefine” To resolve the Tautology, the To resolve the Tautology, the Cause Cause needs to be something needs to be something that can be determined and challenged; that can be determined and challenged; Not an Abstract ConceptNot an Abstract Concept. . In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that mean? We need another substantial meaning.mean? We need another substantial meaning.The Beavers lost the gameThe Beavers are a lousy team. When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT, we need to dig further.we need to dig further. The Circular Logic of the Tautology The Circular Logic of the Tautology comes from a comes from a CauseCause which is abstract; which is abstract; difficult to determine, define or quantify.difficult to determine, define or quantify. So, too often the So, too often the CauseCause is not is not challenged.challenged. And, it seems the undefined And, it seems the undefined CauseCause is is accepted accepted becausebecause of the of the EffectEffect. . Most Frequent Logical Error!76 Washington State University-2010CLRTautology:SearchingForAnAlternateConnectionThe Beavers lost the gameThe Beavers are a lousy team.The Beavers play a lousy gameThe Beavers dont prepare well for gamesThe Beavers dont execute wellThe Beavers are depressed by their mistakesPeople feel bad when they make dumb mistakesThe Beavers are perceived as a lousy team.The Beavers may not be so bad.The Beavers face an easy teamThe Beavers are in a slumpThey are not thinking clearlyMost Frequent Logical Error!77 Washington State University-2010HowDoTautologiesHappen?I tell them I tell them what to dowhat to doThey dont They dont do itdo itI push themI push themThey still They still dont do itdont do itI push them I push them harderharderThey are They are obstinateobstinateI push them I push them hardhardThey are They are obstinateobstinateCause for Tautology is Cause for Tautology is unanswered questions.unanswered questions.Do we every stop to Do we every stop to think why they are not think why they are not answered? answered? Why dont people do Why dont people do what they are told?what they are told?Hum?Hum?Most Frequent Logical Error!78 Washington State University-2010CausefortheTautologyPre-ConceivedNotionInGeneral,themostcommonerrorin“JumpingtoConclusions”istheTautology!He is a He is a jerkjerkHe wont He wont help ushelp usThey are Part of They are Part of Management!Management!Hes IndianHes IndianThey are MuslimsThey are MuslimsHe is BlackHe is BlackThey are PoorThey are PoorShes a WomanShes a WomanMen!Men!Hum?Hum?What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks?What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks?Sometimes a Tautology is a single statement.Most Frequent Logical Error!79 Washington State University-2010TautologyisoftenaKneeJerkWhenwehear,“BECAUSE”(sameasEffect)WhentheBECAUSEisABSTRACTWhentheABSTRACTisDEROGITORYItisprobablyaTautologyLogicProblemBasic Assumptions of the Theory of Constraints:All People All People ThinkThinkAll People are All People are GoodGoodEvery action is logical Every action is logical (within the environment and in (within the environment and in accordance with the individuals accordance with the individuals understanding of their ability to understanding of their ability to change the environment)change the environment)Emotion is evidence of passionate, logical thinking!80 Washington State University-2010PracticeCorrectingaKneeJerkThey are Part of They are Part of Management!Management!Why Should they?Why Should they?Im importantIm importantI do a good jobI do a good jobManagements Role is to Managements Role is to oversee systemic oversee systemic performanceperformanceManagement is Management is IncompetentIncompetent=I dont get I dont get what I needwhat I needManagement Management Ignores meIgnores meManagement Management Doesnt Doesnt RespondRespondManagement Management Doesnt Doesnt ListenListenIm glad its not me!Im glad its not me!I am not the I am not the systems systems problemproblemManagement must Management must be dealing with be dealing with some very serious some very serious needsneeds81 Washington State University-2010AnAdditionalTOCInsightSystemsareInherentlySimpleE=MC2In free markets, economic stability is controlled by the Interest Rate.System ASystem B82 Washington State University-2010LookforaSimpleSolution!The The homework is homework is too hardtoo hardI cant do I cant do my my homeworkhomeworkI dont know what the words meanI dont know what the words meanI dont understand the problemsI dont understand the problemsI dont understand the bookI dont understand the bookLecture doesnt make senseLecture doesnt make senseI cant see the connectionsI cant see the connectionsThere are too many conceptsThere are too many conceptsIts too complicatedIts too complicatedDid you ask Did you ask anyone for anyone for clarity?clarity?No.No.83 Washington State University-2010ThinkingProcessesThe Goal: Improve Systems (Remove UDEs)The Measure: Number, Scope and Severity of Problems The Constraint: Core Conflict“There once was an old SystemThat lived in a shoe.That had so many UDEs It didnt know what to do”UDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDEUDE84 Washington State University-2010ThinkingProcessesThe Analysis:The Paradigm Shift: Cause the Erroneous Assumption to Go Away (Fix Rules, Measures)Let the System Behave Correctly!85 Washington State University-2010ThinkingProcessResultsWhat do we learn here to apply to Daily Lives?Conflicts can be Resolved.Negative Branches should be Trimmed.Be “James Bond” - A Few, Rightly Placed Injections can Make Dramatic Improvement!We can achieve Ambitious TargetsCommunication is Greatly Improved!Buy-In Happens!Problems Go Away- Are Replaced By Desirable Entities!86 Washington State University-2010ThinkingProcessesLessonsLearnedThere are Answers - Dont DespairLook for Cause-Effect RelationshipsThink ClearlyClarity, Causality, Insufficiency, Additional Cause, Predicted Effect, Cause ReversalDont Accept Compromise (No Win-Lose or Lose-Lose)Learn to find Breakthrough Injections“A Cloud-A-Day keeps the Conflict Away”Become Justifiably Self-ConfidentEnter a Complex World, Find the One Spot that Needs Fixing, Fix it. Then, Look for the Next Spot to Fix87 Washington State University-2010 Washington State University-201088NextTopicsTOCThinkingProcessesTOCApplicationsOperationsProjectManagementReplenishmentTOCFinancesandMeasuresSomeTOCPhilosophywillbeblendedintotheseadditionaltopics.