2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyCHAPTER1 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyReal GDP per person in the United States tripled in the 50 years between 1958 and 2008. What has brought about this growth in production, incomes, and living standards?We see even greater economic growth in modern Asia. Incomes have tripled in the 13 years between 1995 and 2008.Why are incomes in China growing so rapidly? 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe Basics of Economic GrowthEconomic growth is the sustained expansion of production possibilities measured as the increase in real GDP over a given period.Calculating Growth RatesThe economic growth rate is the annual percentage change of real GDP.The economic growth rate tells us how rapidly the total economy is expanding. 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe standard of living depends on real GDP per person.Real GDP per person is real GDP divided by the population.Real GDP per person grows only if real GDP grows faster than the population grows.The Basics of Economic Growth 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe Magic of Sustained GrowthThe Rule of 70 states that the number of years it takes for the level of a variable to double is approximately 70 divided by the annual percentage growth rate of the variable. The Basics of Economic Growth 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyApplying the Rule of 70Figure 23.1 show the doubling time for growth rates.A variable that grows at 7 percent a year doubles in 10 years.A variable that grows at 2 percent a year doubles in 35 years.A variable that grows at 1 percent a year doubles in 70 years.The Basics of Economic Growth 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyEconomic Growth TrendsGrowth in the U.S. EconomyFrom 1908 to 2008, growth in real GDP per person in the United States averaged 2 percent a year. Real GDP per person fell precipitously during the Great Depression and rose rapidly during World War II.Growth was most rapid during the 1960s.Growth slowed during the 1970s and sped up again in the 1980s and1990s.Figure 23.2 on the next slide illustrates. 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyEconomic Growth Trends 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyReal GDP Growth in the World EconomyFigure 23.3(a) shows the growth in the rich countries.Growth in the United States, Canada, and Europe Big 4 has been similar. Japan grew rapidly in the 1960s, slower in the 1980s, and even slower in the 1990s.Economic Growth Trends 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyFigure 23.3(b) shows the growth of real GDP per person in group of poor countries. The gaps between real GDP per person in the United States and in these countries have widened. Economic Growth Trends 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyHow Potential GDP GrowsEconomic growth occurs when real GDP increases.But a one-shot increase in real GDP or a recovery from recession is not economic growth.Economic growth is the sustained, year-on-year increase in potential GDP. 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyHow Potential GDP GrowsHow Potential GDP Is DeterminedPotential GDP is the quantity of real GDP produced when the quantity of labor employed is the full-employment quantity.To determine potential GDP we use a model with two components:The aggregate production functionThe aggregate labor market 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyHow Potential GDP GrowsAggregate Production FunctionThe aggregate production function tells us how real GDP changes as the quantity of labor changes when all other influences on production remain the same.An increase in labor increases real GDP. 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyHow Potential GDP GrowsAggregate Labor MarketThe real wage rate is the money wage rate divided by the price level.The demand for labor shows the quantity of labor demanded and the real wage rate.The supply of labor shows the quantity of labor supplied and the real wage rate.The labor market is in equilibrium at the real wage rate at which the quantity of labor demanded equals the quantity of labor supplied. 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyFigure 23.5 illustrates labor market equilibrium.Labor market equilibrium occurs at a real wage rate of $35 an hour and 200 billion hours employed.At a real wage rate above $35 an hour, there is a surplus of labor and the real wage rate falls.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyAt a real wage rate below $35 an hour, there is a shortage of labor and the real wage rate rises.At the labor market equilibrium, the economy is at full employment.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyPotential GDPThe quantity of real GDP produced when the economy is at full employment is potential GDP.When the full-employment quantity of labor is 200 billion hours, potential GDP is $12 trillion.How Potential GDP 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyWhat Makes Potential GDP Grow?We begin by dividing real GDP growth into the forces that increase: Growth in the supply of labor Growth in labor productivityHow Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyGrowth in the Supply of LaborAggregate hours, the total number of hours worked by all the people employed, change as a result of changes in:1. Average hours per worker2. Employment-to-population ratio3. The working-age population growthPopulation growth increases aggregate hours and real GDP, but to increase real GDP person, labor must become more productive. How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe Effects of Population GrowthAn increase in population increases the supply of labor.With no change in the demand for labor, the equilibrium real wage rate falls and the aggregate hours increase.The increase in the aggregate hours increases potential GDP.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyFigure 23.7(a) illustrates the effects of population growth in the labor market.The labor supply curve shifts rightward.The real wage rate fallsand aggregate hours increase.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe increase in aggregate hours increases potential GDP.Because the diminishing returns, the increased population increases real GDP but decreases real GDP per hour of labor.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyGrowth in Labor ProductivityLabor productivity is the quantity of real GDP produced by an hour of labor. Labor productivity equals real GDP divided by aggregate labor hours.If labor become more productive, firms are willing to pay more for a given number of hours so the demand for labor increases.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyFigure 23.8 shows the effect of an increase in labor productivity.The increase in labor productivity shifts the production function upward.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyIn the labor market: An increase in labor productivity increases the demand for labor.With no change in the supply of labor, the real wage rate risesand aggregate hours increase.How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyAnd with the increase in aggregate hours, potential GDP increases. How Potential GDP Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyPreconditions for Labor Productivity GrowthThe fundamental precondition for labor productivity growth is the incentive system created by firms, markets, property rights, and money.The growth of labor productivity depends on Physical capital growth Human capital growth Technological advancesWhy Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyPhysical Capital GrowthThe accumulation of new capital increases capital per worker and increases labor productivity.Human Capital Growth Human capital acquired through education, on-the-job training, and learning-by-doing is the most fundamental source of labor productivity growth.Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyTechnological AdvancesTechnological changethe discovery and the application of new technologies and new goodshas contributed immensely to increasing labor productivity.Figure 23.9 on the next slide summarizes the process of growth. It also shows that the growth of real GDP per person depends on real GDP growth and the population growth rate.Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyWhy Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe quantity of real GDP produced, Y, depends on the quantity of labor, L, the quantity of capital, K, and the state of technology, T. Growth accounting calculates the contribution of capital growth and technological change to labor productivity growth.Robert Solow estimated the effects of capital on labor productivity and discovered the one third rule.Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe one-third rule: On average with no change in technology, a 1 percent increase in capital per hour of labor brings a 1/3 percent increase in labor productivity.For example, suppose capital per hour of labor grows by 3 percent and labor productivity grows by 2.5 percent.The one third rule tells us that capital growth contributed 1/3 of 3 percent, which is 1 percent, to labor productivity growth. The remaining 1.5 percent of labor productivity growth comes from technological change. Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyAccounting for the Productivity Growth Slowdown and SpeedupWe can use the one third rule to study productivity growth in the United States.Figure 23.10 on the next slide illustrates. Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyPart (a) shows the growth of U.S. labor productivity.Between 1960 and 1973, labor productivity grew by 3.7 percent a year.Part (b) shows that capital growth (green bar) and technological change (purple bar) contributed equally to this growth.Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyBetween 1973 and 1983, labor productivity slowed to 1.7 percent a year.A collapse in the contribution of technological change (purple bar) brought about this slowdown in the growth of labor productivity.Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyLabor productivity growth rate increased to 2 percent a year between 1983 and 1993 and to almost 3 percent between 1993 and 2008.Technological change contributed most to this speedup in the growth of labor productivity.Why Labor Productivity Grows 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyWe study three growth theories: Classical growth theory Neoclassical growth theory New growth theoryClassical Growth TheoryClassical growth theory is the view that the growth of real GDP per person is temporary and that when it rises above the subsistence level, a population explosion eventually brings real GDP per person back to the subsistence level.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyClassical Theory of Population GrowthThere is a subsistence real wage rate, which is the minimum real wage rate needed to maintain life.Advances in technology lead to investment in new capital.Labor productivity increases and the real wage rate rises above the subsistence level.When the real wage rate is above the subsistence level, the population grows.Population growth increases the supply of labor and brings diminishing returns to labor.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyAs the population increases the real wage rate falls. The population continues to grow until the real wage rate has been driven back to the subsistence real wage rate.At this real wage rate, both population growth and economic growth stop.Contrary to the assumption of the classical theory, the historical evidence is that population growth rate is not tightly linked to income per person, and population growth does not drive incomes back down to subsistence levels.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyNeoclassical Growth TheoryNeoclassical growth theory is the proposition that real GDP per person grows because technological change induces a level of saving and investment that makes capital per hour of labor grow.Growth ends only if technological change stops. Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe Neoclassical Economics of Population GrowthThe neoclassical view is that the population growth rate is independent of real GDP and the real GDP growth rate. Technological ChangeIn the neoclassical theory, the rate of technological change influences the economic growth rate but economic growth does not influence the pace of technological change. It is assumed that technological change results from chance.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyThe Basic Neoclassical IdeaTechnology begins to advance more rapidly.New profit opportunities arise.Investment and saving increase.As technology advances and the capital stock grows, real GDP per person rises.Diminishing returns to capital lower the real interest rate and eventually growth stops, unless technology keeps on advancing.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyA Problem with Neoclassical Growth TheoryAll economies have access to the saamew technologies and capital is free to roam the globe, seeking the highest available real interest rate.These facts imply that economic growth rates and real GDP per person across economies will converge.Figure 23.3 shows some convergence among rich countries, but convergence is slow.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyNew Growth TheoryNew growth theory holds that real GDP per person grows because of choices that people make in the pursuit of profit and that growth can persist indefinitely.The theory begins with two facts about market economies: Discoveries result from choices. Discoveries bring profit and competition destroys profit.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyTwo further facts play a key role in the new growth theory: Discoveries are a public capital good. Knowledge is not subject to diminishing returns.Knowledge Capital Is Not Subject to Diminishing ReturnsIncreasing the stock of knowledge makes capital and labor more productive. Knowledge capital does not experience diminishing returns is the central proposition of new growth theory.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyFigure 23.11 summarizes the ideas of new growth theory as a perpetual motion machine.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyAchieving Faster GrowthGrowth accounting tell us that to achieve faster economic growth we must either increase the growth rate of capital per hour of labor or increase the pace of technological change.The main suggestions for achieving these objectives areStimulate SavingSaving finances investment. So higher saving rates might increase physical capital growth.Tax incentives might be provided to boost saving.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyStimulate Research and DevelopmentBecause the fruits of basic research and development efforts can be used by everyone, not all the benefit of a discovery falls to the initial discoverer.So the market might allocate too few resources to research and development.Government subsidies and direct funding might stimulate basic research and development.Growth Theories and Policies 2010 Pearson Addison-WesleyEncourage International TradeFree international trade stimulates growth by extracting all the available gains from specialization and trade.The fastest growing nations are the ones with the fastest growing exports and imports.Improve the Quality of EducationThe benefits from education spread beyond the person being educated, so there is a tendency to under invest in education. Growth Theories and Policies