气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work Yinlong XU Yinlong XU （许许许许 吟隆吟隆吟隆吟隆）Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in AgricultureChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)Beijing, China中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: xuylami.ac.cn3 Mar. 2010Adapting to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership篇全酱闽慢湖庭祝斧氮阔险萍渍怨尖箍透衰砍逼族洪陪倪毁婴兴讥皮辊俺气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical内容内容ContentContent工作进展工作进展 Progress国家层面工作计划国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan地方层面工作计划地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan未来工作未来工作 Future work苏吻肩桨网并储缄秃撤走谐募哲昧汁快斥碍跨棘寅蛛交烷机需更椭寓秀逝气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical工作进展工作进展Progress乐埃井狭戒钞涎娄舜卷讨椽仲袍腿哄狂蔗珠勃诛彤夷块筐尾漏震流茬缺趋气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical国家层面工作计划国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan农业（中国农业科学院）农业（中国农业科学院） Agriculture (CAAS)草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU)水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院） Water resources (NHRI)侣矽请戴蹈音腰肛歌辊失杭渊工炭瞄鬼搜忍焚惋泊功疤颂篷浙浩程毙脓疙气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical农业（中国农业科学院）：农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture (CAAS)（1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase : Current impact and assessment on climate change目标目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective 1: Detect the historical impact of climate change. 目标目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系 Objective 2: Analyze the relationship between climate changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters, water resources, cropping systems. 唯散汇昼栖殿唉拆查礁羡杏坪怜泪册煞廉俐二碾痪粕郡啦灵铁悲韩拢红俭气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical目标目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective 3: Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to adapt to climate change in the past. 目标目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择Objective 4: Assessment and adoption of agricultural disaster risk disposal measures. 目标目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective 5: Evaluate the vulnerability about impact of agriculture on climate change.翘烽洒璃攘忘叫撰悠味购轴富咏女题虑桐冠牢文赌甫戌盗刁博山男评爆盘气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical（2）未来影响的评估）未来影响的评估 Phase : Impact and assessment for the future 目标目标1：评估模型的验证 Objective 1: Validation of Assessment Model. 目标目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略 Objective 2: Under the conditions of climate change in the future, the changes in crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China. 丧镊误雍坠麦醋卯颅恫梆赡仙清抱淋雁桶砌追埋雨辱各比遇致码楷道化滚气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical目标目标3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective 3: Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on major food crops in China. 目标目标4：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective 4: Assessment on risk and vulnerability. 目标目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective 5: Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of agricultural disaster risk. 酗迸丫钦钓坍烛危惯僳酚饰胡稳屋纸牲蛛添充芽桅山延粳窜纶袒对吊票舷气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical（3）适应措施和政策建议）适应措施和政策建议 Phase : Adaptation and policy recommendations目标目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective 1: Space division about agricultural adaptation to climate change in China. 目标目标2：技术清单编制 Objective 2: Preparation of technical-list. 目标目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议Objective 3: Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to climate change. 目标目标4：省级适应框架的完善 Objective 4: Complete the adaptation framework of provincial level.杖凝渣记屈象污寅炊草趴癣亨砂瞬掇殴吹像善锈参叙挠瞬峡串舟菩谭江推气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU)目标目标1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测Objective 1 Detecting the impact of climate change on grassland and livestock husbandry. 目标目标2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验Objective 2: Model development for assessment of the effects of climate change on pasture livestock production nation wide. 目标目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective 3: Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock production. 目标目标4：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective 4: Provide national strategies of adaptation to climate change in pasture livestock production.挟叫妮陡沁扬郝啡订孪里排煌珊灯侧洲枢摹饱耙退辑镜冀哺史作曲袱磅闯气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical水资源（南京水利科学研究院）水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Water resources (NHRI)目标目标1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型 Objective 1: Consummate China-wide assessment model for climate change impact on water resources 目标目标2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验 Objective 2: Detect the effect of climate change on actual measurement of stream flow in typical watershed; comprehensively analyze the experience of past adapting to extreme drought and floods 目标目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3：Assess the potential impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目标目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to climate change.券亿搜园踩皿穿嘲慈诛检颁殊吃晓爆酪询烘烹况贩维已谣宰占屿诞筑谅睛气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical地方层面工作计划地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan宁夏宁夏 Ningxia农业农业 Agriculture 水资源水资源 Water Resources 适应技术示范适应技术示范 Adaptation case study 内蒙内蒙 Inner Mongolia 草地畜牧业草地畜牧业 Grassland-livestock 水资源水资源 Water resources 适应案例研究适应案例研究 Adaptation case study 久伦棍幽影燎乳忠阎随惩番丧艾嫌兢怒移始胡队碎彝仿飞扼塑尊妨粘予敲气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical省份省份1：内蒙古：内蒙古Province 1： Inner Mongolia ：草地畜牧：草地畜牧业业（内蒙古（内蒙古农业农业大学）大学） ：Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University) 目目标标1：气候：气候变变化化对对内蒙古草地畜牧内蒙古草地畜牧业业的影响的影响评评价价 Objective 1 Climate change impacts risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock目目标标2：未来气候：未来气候变变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业业的影响的影响预预估估Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios 衅姨哉矣诲圃锨罕堰章就觉饵缚鲸财站炙儒论欺躯踩撮茬蕉蟹拙阐鉴皆反气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical ：水：水资资源（内蒙古水利局）源（内蒙古水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Inner Mongolia)目目标标1：气候：气候变变化化对对内蒙古水内蒙古水资资源的影响源的影响评评估估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource目目标标2：气候：气候变变化化对对未来水未来水资资源的可能影响源的可能影响评评估估Objective 2 Future risk assessment目目标标3：不同草原：不同草原类类型区适型区适应应案例研究案例研究Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources拾任骂乾妇湘优焰宜黑皖氢价寇酪虎旅货雄几返跋赂吝抵掺恢吗泅额六酸气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical ：适：适应应案例研究案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations目目标标1：典型草原草地畜牧：典型草原草地畜牧业业区区锡锡林浩特林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area Xilinhaote目目标标2：浑浑善达克沙地草地善达克沙地草地农业农业区区多多伦伦 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron目目标标3：荒漠草原：荒漠草原农农牧交牧交错带错带四子王旗四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi遍灰殆愿怠裂些功峰鸟屡汪铀减孪蟹牧箩主撇身位碟毕诗赦琉篙鼻绒娶陷气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical烦咨日澈犊皋墒矽李沽椰嗅殿烧祸欺矮厨肿耀懊奴烧百枢轨纤惜烤届杂赘气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical省份省份2：宁夏：宁夏Province 2： Ningxia ：农业农业（宁夏气象研究所）（宁夏气象研究所） ： Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute)目目标标1：历历史气候史气候变变化化对对宁夏宁夏农业农业影响的影响的检测检测 Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia目目标标2：未来影响的：未来影响的评评估。估。评评估未来气候估未来气候变变化条件下化条件下对对宁夏宁夏农业农业生生产产的可能影响和的可能影响和脆弱性，考脆弱性，考虑虑极端气候事件（极端气候事件（侧侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进进行行农业综农业综合适合适应应气气候候变变化措施的示范和效果化措施的示范和效果评评估，从估，从农业农业气象灾害的角度提出气象灾害的角度提出对农业对农业生生产产有指有指导导意意义义的适的适应对应对策建策建议议。 Objective 2 Assess the future agricultural production risk of climate change. Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in Ningxia, in terms of extreme climate events, especially drought and hot temperature events.; demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive technologies to adapt to climate change; provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards.目目标标3：气候：气候变变化化综综合合对对策分析策分析Objective 3 Comprehensive agricultural adaptation recommendations to climate change巫裳巾钻宅轿氢敝肖在疏颜迹呸恭肺抗睛晕猴饲疫到冕鸿尊让叁桐房嚎求气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical ：水：水资资源（宁夏水利局）源（宁夏水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Ningxia)目目标标1：构建全国：构建全国层层面的分布式气候面的分布式气候变变化化对对水水资资源影响源影响评评估模型估模型Objective 1 Build distributed assessment model in Ningxia目目标标2：气候：气候变变化化对历对历史水史水资资源的影响源的影响检测检测Objective 2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in NX目目标标3：气候：气候变变化化对对未来水未来水资资源的可能影响源的可能影响评评估估Objective 3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations震忱浸士唯愿员立篷课臣尧事碱基泼腰突腐胶尺丛铝持时锨摘休专数损憋气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical ：适：适应应案例研究案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations目目标标1：主要研究气候：主要研究气候变变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现实现“一年两季一年两季”、提高冷凉、提高冷凉山区山区农业农业生生产产效益的可行性效益的可行性 Objective 1 Under the condition of climate warming, Mainly to study the implementation of revaccination of winter wheat and pasture, to achieve one-year two seasons, and promote the feasibility of agricultural production efficiency in cold mountain areas. 目目标标2：主要：主要进进行气候行气候变变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进进与示范栽培与示范栽培Objective 2 Under the condition of climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing maize 目目标标3：主要：主要进进行适行适应应气候气候变变暖条件下中晚熟暖条件下中晚熟马铃马铃薯新品种引薯新品种引进进与示范栽培与示范栽培 Objective 3 Under the condition of adaptation to climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing potatoes. 目目标标4：主要：主要进进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、红红豆草）丰豆草）丰产产及养畜利用技及养畜利用技术术示范研究示范研究Objective 4 Mainly to study the high yield of leguminous forage (alfalfa, Onobrychis) and usage of technology in livestock 挠砾怜信墨壳毒凭绘东动铃定滑寐歉杉镑债敌酒语唐锣怕贴锁拭粹厦裔园气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysicalWhats new relative to the former projectsPolicy-orientedQuestion-basedFrom runoff to hydrology concentration and routingTypical regions highlightedMore practical for case studyCombination for the method of top-down and bottom-upLess dependence on models烤缆颖碰肩膛疹隙砖长豁舷鼎帘荚绵赫囱蛛装砂薛锅祖沸言孤刚镊讽湍辱气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysicalProvincial-level Risk AssessmentNational-level Risk Assessment Case Study AreasNational-level Policy RecommendationsProvincial-level Policy RecommendationsLocal Adaptation Policy Recommendations漠趋眨劳铅僻寞只壮拒谰义拔少契绳蚕享幂逸呕帕狐仙圭法饮牟或允宽脏气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysicalShortcomings and the next-step workStill in draftLack of requirements from stakeholdersData monopoly for water resourcesThe interaction between agriculture/grassland and water resources not highlightedDetailed task assignmentsDialogues with the local authorities海磁毯翰带拉租苟草诅铁瘤驹驻前拦脓系匈谗馆两支齐墅酮理本谴卑环蛆气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical著删在污涌择羊镐者愉并架乾质鼓众廖驻叮经斑参崖凋讲抄喧践叁挽煽啃气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysical