STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter Stanger-2-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；E-COMMERCE IS DEAD “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce”- The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”-Forbes.com, April 2000 “Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”-Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at Amazon.com - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”-Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson-3-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；TOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems “If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”-4-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTravelocityBarnsandnobel.comExpediaDrugstore.comEgghead.comPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4B-5-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794-6-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860 - 18901895 - 1925-7-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs . with increased throughput .Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ ncValue, costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs .$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize (GB)Cost ($/MB)-8-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T, MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors, integrated circuits, memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing, sales, and distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM , Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge power plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power (UK)Electrobel (Belgium)RWE (Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling (Norway)EnronUnited Utilities (UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity (UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en (Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft (Norway)Oslo Energi (Norway)EVO (Germany)IVO (Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES -9-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper, chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/ enlargeStore/ display Share with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players (2000 U.S. market share)CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFujiKodak (66%)FujiKodak (Qualex) (40%)FujiPhotohutsAlbum manufacturersFrame manufacturersMail servicesdisposablesCameraManipulationCropAlter pixelsPrinterPaper, inkReprint/ enlargeStore/displayShare with othersProcessing (at home)Digital value chain HP, Sony and others well-positionedMajor players (2000 U.S. market share)Sony (35%)HP (19%)Olympus (13%)Kodak (12%)HP (70%)LexmarkEpsonHPLexmarkEpsonKodakPCIBM microdriveSonyCompact FlashE-mail postingPersonal Web siteZingShutterflySnapfishOfotoOthersAdobe (Photoshop)Standard with camera and available free online-10-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0, Shop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group; SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reportsNote: Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues ($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10% share in several categories-11-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；CATALOGUERS ARE WINNING EBIT Margin in % of Revenues19992000Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group-12-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；ADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDot.comsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE, Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecom-13-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；RENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth = valueProfitable growth = valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantage-14-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；THE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEADIllustrative view of transforming forces, Circa 2010Technology) GlobalizationDeregulationElectroniccommerceSource: BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100)Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100)-15-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm此文献由漂石(piaoshi.org)于互联网整理；版权原作者所有，特此免责；更多网络营销资料见piaoshi.org下载频道；A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/ assets)Cash flow margin in % of sales(%)RetailConstruction MachineryAutomobileChemicalsUtilitiesReal EstateAirlineAuto partsAerospaceTelecomSource: BCG Analysis